Stefanik and Hochul in Close Race for Governor
Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik is currently in a competitive position against incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul in the hypothetical race for governor.
The latest polling suggests that 43% of New Yorkers would support Hochul for reelection, almost the same percentage as Stefanik, who stands at around 42% in similar surveys.
If a Republican primary were to occur for the 2026 gubernatorial race, Stefanik would have a strong edge, receiving 56% of voter support, while Hudson Valley Rep. Mike Lawler trails significantly with only 9% backing.
According to an independent poll from Co/Efficive, roughly 15% of voters remain undecided.
Hochul’s approval rating has dropped to 30%, with 57% of respondents indicating disapproval. By contrast, President Trump fares better, holding a 44% positive rating among New York voters, though 49% still express disapproval.
Interestingly, Hochul’s negative standing appears to be worse than what was reported in a recent Siena University poll showing 44% favorability. Meanwhile, Stefanik has also seen a challenging lead, with only 35% of GOP voters supporting her, while Lawler and Blakeman receive 22% and 11%, respectively.
No Republicans have formally declared their candidacy for next year’s election just yet.
In a recent Co/Fifficient poll, only 23% of participants believe that Hochul deserves reelection, with a significant 63% preferring new leadership.
“Hochul’s reelection potential highlights her vulnerability,” stated Ryan Munce from Co/Efficive.
When asked about Stefanik, 34% of voters rated her favorably, while 32% held an unfavorable view, and the remaining 34% were either unsure or unfamiliar with her.
Co/Efficive’s survey included about 1,163 potential voters via phone and text during the first two days of May, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Turning attention to the 2026 gubernatorial race, Paulstar Month noted that the outcome may hinge on how Trump’s Congressional influence and Republican strategies evolve leading up to the midterm elections.
Remarkably, during Trump’s first presidential term, he faced a significant setback in New York during the 2018 midterms known as the “Blue Wave,” which saw then-Governor Andrew Cuomo secure his third term and Democrats gain House seats while Republicans lost ground in the state Senate.
However, Munce pointed out that Trump’s popularity has seemingly increased, particularly among male voters and independents.
Co/Efficive is currently surveying House Republicans and statewide GOP candidates, alongside local Democratic candidates, while also conducting independent studies.
In the past, Co/Efficive’s independent polling during the 2022 gubernatorial election showed Hochul narrowly defeating Lee Zeldin, who is now serving as Trump’s environmental secretary, by just six percentage points.
Meanwhile, a recent Co/Efficive poll conducted shortly before the election displayed a tightening race between Hochul and Zeldin, having shown Hochul gaining six points recently.
Hochul’s campaign intends to dismiss the latest polling and challenge Stefanik if she moves forward with her gubernatorial bid. They stated, “Elise Stefanik embodies Washington’s extreme ideology: unwavering loyalty to a Trump who is working against New Yorkers’ healthcare while undermining their rights.”
They also emphasized their commitment to economic relief for New Yorkers, children’s welfare, and community safety, contrasting Stefanik’s positions with Hochul’s efforts to address unemployment effectively.
