Schools in England could lose up to £1 billion in funding by 2030, researchers have warned, with an extraordinary drop in pupil numbers making some facilities financially unviable and threatening to close. The waves continue.
Schools have already begun to merge or close in some areas of London, and the number of students has been decreasing for some time. The North East is expected to see the biggest decline in primary school pupils, falling by 13% by 2028/9, according to think tank Education Policy Institute (EPI).
At secondary level, Yorkshire and the Humber, the North East and London are predicted to see the biggest declines in pupil numbers, while other regions such as the West Midlands, the South East and the East of England will see significant declines in pupil numbers. are doing. It’s on the rise.
A surge in birth rates in the 2000s increased the number of students, but the group moved through primary and into secondary education, leaving vacant seats.
Looking to the future, even if funding per student increases in real terms over the remaining decade, costs will still be high, but many schools will suffer funding cuts due to reduced income due to declining student numbers. EPI predicts that
“As student numbers decline, many schools will see their budgets shrink as a result,” the EPI report states. “However, school costs do not move in the same way. Reducing class sizes does not proportionally reduce staffing costs, school supplies, utilities, and other day-to-day costs of running a school. ”
It added: “In the face of this challenge, some of the worst-affected schools will struggle to survive. These schools are feeling the strain, so they are forced to merge with other schools, face difficult challenges.” “We will be forced to consider cost-cutting measures and, ultimately, alternatives such as school closures.”
The number of pupils in state primary and secondary schools in England is expected to fall by around 436,000 between 2022/23 and 2028/29. The Department for Education (DfE) predicts that number will continue to fall by a further 382,000 between 2028/29 and 2032/33.
This decline is mainly due to lower birth rates, but immigration patterns, particularly in London, are also having an impact, with factors such as higher rents and living costs, international travel post-COVID-19 and Brexit. Many young families are leaving the city because of this.
Robbie Cruikshanks, EPI researcher and author of the report, said: “The scale of the predicted changes in student numbers poses major policy challenges for future governments.
“Policymakers need to carefully consider the impact of changing national funding formulas on schools most affected by declining student numbers and how best to redistribute the savings created by declining student numbers. be.”
EPI calculations are based on a school funding model that replicates the DfE’s National Funding Formula (NFF), allowing researchers to analyze the impact of potential funding policy decisions on individual schools and regions in the country .
Using this model, EPI estimates that even if funding per pupil increases in real terms, overall funding for primary and secondary public schools will rise from a peak of £42.7 billion in 2024/25 to 2029/30. They calculated that this would fall to £41.6 billion by the end of the year.
“Because we do not know school-wide budgets over the projection period, we use a central estimate of a real 0.5% annual increase in student-initiated per-pupil funding,” the report says.
Pepe Diacio, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said schools were already under pressure due to 14 years of underfunding.
“Schools must not be left to manage the enormous financial risks posed by this changing national landscape,” he said.
“The next government must address this serious situation by using falling pupil numbers not as savings for the exchequer, but as an opportunity to improve per-pupil funding, particularly for disadvantaged pupils. .”
A DfE spokesperson said the EPI figures were speculative and funding levels beyond 2024/25 were not confirmed and would be subject to a future review of spending.
“Next year we will increase funding for schools to £60.7 billion, the highest level ever in real terms per pupil. All schools will receive the increase in funding per pupil, and the NFF will support the needs of each school and its pupils. ensure that funds are distributed equitably based on
“Balancing supply and demand for schools in line with changing demographics is something that local authorities and academy trusts have been doing for many years.”
