EU’s Ongoing Sanctions Against Russia Amid Ceasefire Refusal
In light of Ukraine’s refusal to agree to a ceasefire, the European Union now faces the challenge of implementing a planned expansion of economic sanctions against Russia without the support of the United States. The U.S. has been vocal about imposing “large” new sanctions on Russia.
Europe had hoped that pressure on the Kremlin would intensify following a significant two-hour call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on Monday. While Trump didn’t follow through on the earlier threat of “massive” sanctions in the absence of a ceasefire, he did express a favorable outlook towards resuming trade with Russia.
“Russia wants to engage in massive trade with the U.S. once this devastating ‘Bloodbath’ concludes. I agree,” Trump stated on social media. Ukraine responded by suggesting that during the nation’s rebuilding process, it could potentially benefit greatly from trade opportunities.
This week, the EU authorized its 17th round of sanctions against Russia, measures that had been in the works prior to the latest developments with Putin. These sanctions are seen as more progressive than previous rounds, despite difficulties in gaining unanimous agreement within the EU on new targets.
On Tuesday, the EU added numerous Russian individuals and businesses to its sanctions list, bringing the total number of asset freezes and travel bans to over 2,400. This latest package particularly targets Putin’s so-called shadow fleet—tankers operating under flags that enable Russia to sell oil to nations like India despite Western restrictions.
After the G7 and the EU imposed bans on selling or facilitating the sale of Russian oil priced above $60 per barrel, European shipping firms have sold many aging vessels. These ships can be re-registered in countries such as India and Vietnam, which are not participating in the economic measures against Moscow, thus allowing Russia to circumvent the price cap.
Additionally, 189 vessels have been barred from accessing services like EU ports and insurance, raising the total number of affected vessels to 342.
However, some EU member states feel that the current measures fall short, especially as the shadow fleet continues to grow. An EU diplomat has estimated that around 800 vessels are part of Russia’s shadow fleet, a significant increase from just 100 a year ago.
Even before the latest sanctions, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen indicated that the EU was preparing to introduce “intense sanctions” targeting Russian energy sectors and banks. These could include measures affecting the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines, with Nord Stream 1 already out of operation due to unexplained underwater blasts, while Nord Stream 2 has never acquired a license. Nevertheless, Russia has shown interest in reviving the gas project linking it to Germany. “Ideas on sanctions are still being discussed,” a spokesperson for von der Leyen remarked.
Apart from financial sanctions and increased pressure on the shadow fleet, the committee is contemplating lowering the $60 oil price cap.
Notably, this plan does not completely align with the demands of Ukraine and some of its strongest allies within the EU. Nations along the Baltic Sea are pushing to halt the purchase of Russian gas entirely, with the EU earlier proposing a phase-out of all Russian gas by the end of 2027. Currently, the EU remains Russia’s largest buyer of liquefied natural gas, with much of it still flowing to Germany through Belgian ports.
Ukraine has also been vocal about sanctions against foreign purchasers of Russian oil, backed by leaked documents from Kiev reported by Reuters. These secondary sanctions could potentially target major importers like China and India, which is considered a critical step. Thus far, the EU has only imposed sanctions on relatively minor companies in China and other nations that supply military technology to Russia. Ukraine is further advocating for a reduction of the oil price cap to $30 per barrel.
There are growing concerns regarding the EU’s ability to act without U.S. support, especially since these measures were initially agreed upon by the G7, including Washington. Kaja Kallas, leading EU foreign policy, labeled the oil price cap as the “most important” component of the upcoming sanctions package.
Some EU insiders worry that unity among member states might fracture if the U.S. decides to ease sanctions against Russia. Hungary, which has frequently threatened to block sanctions, successfully prevented the bloc from imposing sanctions on the Russian economy during its July renewal.
While some Baltic states may impose sanctions at the national level, many lack the necessary legal framework to do so. Instead, alternatives to sanctions, such as significant capital management and sudden tariffs on Russian economic sectors, are being explored. EU trade policies function on a qualified majority vote, while sanctions require unanimous consent. However, no one seems eager to pursue this backup plan.
