President Biden’s re-election chances appeared to have been dealt another blow last week when a new poll showed his approval rating at its lowest in nearly two years amid growing economic pessimism and declining support among key voters.
In fact, the latest Reuters Ipsos Follow-up survey Only 36% of people approve of Biden’s job performance, the lowest level so far in the White House.
To make matters worse, a significant portion of the Democratic base is turning away from Biden as the campaign heads into a crucial summer season. voteBiden’s approval ratings are dismally low among voters under 30 (26%), black voters (55%) and Hispanic voters (33%).
Not only are these voters more dissatisfied with Biden, but they are also more favorably disposed toward Donald Trump: The same Emerson poll found that Trump has a 4-point lead among voters in their 30s (45 percent to 41 percent), a reversal from 2020, when Biden won with that demographic.
While majorities of black and Hispanic voters still support Biden, support for the incumbent president is significantly weaker than in 2020, with Biden leading by just 12 points (49 percent to 37 percent) among Hispanics in particular.
Among black voters, CNN Poll Trump’s approval rating was 22 percent, while Biden’s approval rating fell to 69 percent from 81 percent in 2020. While that’s still a majority, it’s a significant drop.
Therefore, Biden’s support among blacks and Hispanics is waning. Trump’s lead In key battleground states such as Nevada and Arizona, along with four other battleground states, the Cook Report battleground state polls reported:
Why are traditionally solid Democratic voters turning against Biden? Simply put, it’s the economy.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests that inflation and a sluggish economy, issues that have dogged Biden for almost his entire term, continue to plague him.
It’s probably no coincidence that the last time Biden’s approval rating was this low was in July 2022, when inflation had just hit its highest level in more than 40 years.
That’s why Americans prefer Trump’s economic policies over Biden’s by 10 percentage points, according to a Reuters poll (40 percent to 30 percent).
Similarly, another Guardian Harris Poll This underscores the extent to which Americans are blaming Biden for inflation, and how his inability to stop prices rising is affecting perceptions of virtually the entire economy.
this is Longest Despite the last period since the Vietnam War where the unemployment rate has remained below 4%, half of Americans (49%) believe the unemployment rate is actually at its highest level in 50 years.
Interestingly, inflation is also hurting Americans’ perceptions of more visible indicators of the economy’s health, such as the stock market. Nearly half of Americans (49%) say the S&P 500 Index will be negative this year. In fact, it’s projected to be up nearly 24% in 2023 and over 10% so far in 2024.
Perhaps most worrying for the Biden team, nearly six in ten (56%) believe the U.S. is in a recession, and a similar majority (58%) blame the economic downturn on “mismanagement by the Biden administration.”
How Americans view the economy varies along partisan lines, but the Guardian-Harris Poll found that economic pessimism cuts across party lines: Three-quarters (74%) of independents and 61% of Democrats believe inflation is rising, and 39% of Democrats actually say Biden is making the economy worse.
Similarly, 53% believe the U.S. is in a recession, including 49% of Democrats.
While the economy is a top issue, Biden has largely failed to convince voters of his success on other fronts: On immigration, voters favor Trump’s approach by a 17-point margin, 42 percent to 25 percent, according to a Reuters poll, and on managing foreign conflicts and national security, Trump was the top choice, 36 percent to 29 percent.
Taken together, these findings are truly reprehensible for the Biden administration and highlight the president’s vulnerability on the issue he has consistently ranked as most influential in determining who voters will vote for.
Importantly, as these surveys make clear, voters are increasingly convinced that the economy is bad and getting worse, whether because of inflation or flaws in the administration’s messaging. And even traditionally solid Democrats are pinning the blame on Biden.
That said, it would be a mistake to say Trump won the election, despite Biden’s sagging approval ratings and widespread pessimism about the economy.
The former president is an extremely divisive figure, facing four criminal trials, and a sizable chunk of his Republican base remains in hot water. backing Nikki Haley endorsed her in the primary, even though she dropped out of the race.
But it’s hard to underestimate how important the economy is during election time. Three years of runaway inflation have continued to erode American purchasing power, and while inflation is slowing, prices are already up 20%. Higher than before Before Biden took office as president.
If these trends continue, it’s entirely possible that Trump could return to the White House.
Douglas E. Shawn is a political consultant and founder and partner at Shawn Cooperman Research. He served as an advisor to President Clinton and worked on Michael Bloomberg’s 2020 presidential campaign. His new book is “The End of Democracy: Russia and China Rise, America Falls Back.” Saul Mangel is a senior strategist at Shawn Cooperman Research.
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