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Fed’s preferred inflation gauge came in less than expected

The Fed's gauge of inflation fell below expectations in November but remains above the central bank's target level as it continues its efforts to rein in inflation.

The Commerce Department said Friday that the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index rose 0.1% in November, up 2.4% from the same month last year. Both results were below expectations from FactSet economists.

Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1% in the month and 2.8% from a year earlier, lower than expected.

U.S. stocks were mixed after the data, which has been a choppy trading week ahead of a shortened Christmas trading week.

ticker safety last change change %
Me: DJI Dow Jones Average 44782 -128.65

-0.29%

SP500 S&P500 6047.15 +14.77

+0.24%

I:Comp Nasdaq Composite Index 19403.947849 +185.78

+0.97%

Still, the headline PCE was 2.4%, up slightly from 2.3% in October and 2.1% in September, suggesting that inflation remains sticky.

Why do egg prices remain high?

The US Federal Reserve is focused on PCE's headline numbers as it seeks to slow the pace of price growth to 2%, but policymakers say core data is a better indicator of inflation. It is considered an indicator.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference after the Federal Reserve Board's Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington, DC on December 18, 2024. (Alex Wong/Getty Images/Getty Images)

The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the importance of the data coming forward.

Fed cuts interest rates again in December

“We know that reducing policy restraints too soon or by too much can impede the development of inflation.At the same time, if policy restraints are reduced too slowly or by too little, economic activity and employment may be unduly weakened, and the scope and timing of further adjustments to policy restraints. The committee will evaluate future data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks regarding the target range for the federal funds rate, but the outline of the economic forecast will not move in a predetermined direction. “It's not the case,” he said at a press conference.

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Personal consumption, or spending, rose 0.4% more than expected but was in line with the previous month. However, income fell by 0.4%, compared to the previous forecast of 0.6%.

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