Polls Show Bolsonaro Leading Ahead of Brazil’s Runoff Election

Recent polling in Brazil suggests that conservative Senator Flávio Bolsonaro is leading incumbent socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as the nation prepares for the runoff election on October 25.

On Sunday, over 158 million Brazilian voters will decide between Bolsonaro and Lula for the presidency over the next four years. A report released by the Brazilian outlet Poder 360 on Friday summarized 17 recent surveys done by leading polling organizations.

Out of these, Senator Bolsonaro appears to be ahead in 15 polls, while Lula leads in one poll from Vox Brasil. The most recent survey by Datafolha shows both candidates tied at 50 percent. These polls were conducted at various times in mid-October.

Even though Bolsonaro shows an advantage in most polls, Poder 360 notes the differences fall “within the margin of error,” which could mean a tight race on Sunday. He surprised many by defeating Lula in the first round of voting on October 4, although he did not secure the 50 percent needed to win outright, leading to the upcoming runoff. That election also featured a crowded field of 13 candidates.

The final days of the campaign have been marked by a debate between Bolsonaro and Lula that mainstream media described as “chaotic.” A second debate is planned for Friday night in Rio de Janeiro.

This upcoming debate has been surrounded by a contentious issue, stemming from Lula’s demands for Bolsonaro to share extensive financial, tax, and phone records about his family before appearing on stage. Lula insisted he wouldn’t debate a “thief,” prompting Bolsonaro to accept the challenge and counter with a request for Lula to reveal his own corporate credit card expenses along with his family’s records.

Bolsonaro claimed this back-and-forth aimed to “break out the endless cycle that serves no purpose.” He called for transparency about public expenses, particularly those charged to the presidential corporate credit card.

The ongoing exchange of demands over financial disclosures has sparked a flurry of legal activity between the two campaigns at Brazil’s electoral authority, the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE). CNN Brasil reported that Lula’s campaign submitted the requested information, while Bolsonaro’s campaign provided a document granting permission for disclosure. However, as of Friday morning, none of the requested information has been made public.

On Thursday, Brazilian Supreme Court Justice André Mendonça indicated that both candidates could disclose the information independently without judiciary intervention, pointing out that necessary documents are usually accessible through financial institutions or government resources. He, however, emphasized that such voluntary disclosures would not substitute for an official review by the relevant authorities.

Despite the tension surrounding the debate conditions and the ongoing disputes, preparations for the final debate appear to be on track. The event will be broadcast live Friday night on TV Globo, where both candidates are expected to present their final arguments ahead of Sunday’s election.

The upcoming debate will differ from the first one in structure, consisting of four blocks where candidates will question one another, followed by a free-form discussion. In an effort to mitigate prior mistakes—like controversial movements and gestures noted in the first debate—this format restricts each candidate’s movement to their designated side during the earlier blocks.