Forecast: AMD Stock Expected to Rise 60% by 2026, Due to President Donald Trump

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 0.02%) The stock has seen a staggering increase of 78% this year, with strong expectations for 2025. However, some trading patterns indicate that investors may be cashing in on their profits. AMD’s shares have dipped 19% since reaching a year-high on October 29.

This decline might present a good entry point for those keen on investing in rapidly expanding companies, particularly with the growing focus on artificial intelligence (AI). The Trump administration’s recent announcements might enable companies like Nvidia (NVDA +1.09%), AMD, and Intel to sell advanced AI chips to Chinese clients, potentially giving AMD a nice boost in 2026.

Let’s dive into what’s driving AMD as we step into the new year and explore why this stock could surge again.

Potential Challenges from the Trump Administration’s Actions

AMD’s business showed stable growth in 2025, with projected annual revenue hitting $34 billion, up 31% from 2024. It could’ve been better. Unfortunately, AMD faced barriers to selling its chips in China since April, following the imposition of export restrictions related to advanced AI data center chips.

Consequently, AMD faced $800 million in inventory expenses during the second quarter. Moreover, the actions by the Trump administration have led to a noticeable revenue shortfall. In fact, approximately 25% of AMD’s 2024 sales of $25.8 billion came from China—roughly $6.2 billion.

Nevertheless, analysts are optimistic about the firm’s prospects, predicting a 20% increase in earnings for 2025, projected at $3.97 per share. Some estimates even suggest that AMD’s earnings could climb as high as $6.46 per share next year. Personally, I think it could do even better than that.

Taking Nvidia as a reference point, they’re now permitted to sell their advanced H200 chips to consumers in China. Previously, they could only offer the H20 chips, which were scaled down to meet export rules, making them less powerful and less expensive.

This shift could significantly enhance Nvidia’s sales next year, even with the 25% tax slated for sales to China. Trump even hinted on Truth Social that a similar opportunity could exist for AMD, allowing it to market high-performance chips to Chinese customers.

AMD has previously sold lesser models like the MI308 to the Chinese market. Permitting the sale of more powerful chips could help AMD recover substantial revenue losses by 2026, even with the added export tax.

Indeed, a full-fledged AMD datacenter GPU would be notably more valuable than the diminished MI308. That’s a key reason why sales could exceed expectations next year.

Potential for Stock Price Surge in 2026

Forecasts suggest that AMD’s revenue will climb 31% to reach $44.6 billion in 2026. If revenues from China bounce back to the 2024 level of $6.2 billion, total sales could approach $51 billion. Interestingly, analysts have kept 2026 revenue predictions intact, implying that they haven’t fully assessed the impact of the government’s rule changes on AMD’s potential earnings.

With AMD aiming for $51 billion in sales next year and maintaining its current price-to-sales ratio of 11, the market cap might jump to $561 billion—representing an upside potential of 60% from its present valuation. So, considering everything, it could be an opportune moment to invest in this semiconductor stock ahead of a likely surge in the new year after its recent downturn.