Former Biden administration aide Cait Conley is projected to defeat Rep. Mike Lawler in New York’s 17th Congressional District, a closely watched contest that could help determine control of the House. The Associated Press made the projection late Thursday.
Conley, a military veteran who served on the White House National Security Council, is expected to join Congress next year, unseating the two-term Republican. The district, just north of New York City, was carried by Kamala Harris in 2024, and several forecasts had identified it as a likely Democratic pickup.
Both parties invested heavily in the race. Lawler spent much of the campaign trying to balance support for President Donald Trump with his effort to present himself as an independent voice. The candidates clashed over issues including immigration enforcement and taxes.
Lawler’s supporters included the parents of Sheridan Gorman, a college student from his district who was killed in Chicago while out with friends. The man accused of killing her is an undocumented immigrant who had previously been arrested for shoplifting and was released without a federal immigration detainer under Chicago’s sanctuary-city policies.
Lawler and Gorman’s parents argued that sanctuary policies, including those in New York, put Americans at risk. Lawler also claimed Conley would do little to address the effects of illegal immigration.
Conley condemned Gorman’s killing and has said she opposes illegal immigration, though she has not specifically criticized sanctuary laws.
From 2021 to 2023, Conley served as counterterrorism director on the White House National Security Council. She later became a senior election security adviser at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, serving through the end of Joe Biden’s presidency.
Forecasts differed on the race: Fox News Power Rankings rated the district as leaning Democratic, while the Cook Political Report listed it as a toss-up.
