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Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge should and will win MVP awards as they dance with history on a team that is almost certain to make the playoffs.
Let's make things more complicated.
With a unique resume that includes two American League MVP awards as a pitcher and hitter, Ohtani is seeking a unique win in the National League as he becomes the first player to win the honor as a full-time DH.
Judge is the favorite to win a second AL MVP award because he could reach 60 home runs again, despite ranking last in outs average among the 25 center fielders with at least 200 home runs and last in Fangraphs defensive metrics among center fielders with at least 600 innings pitched.
Should a historic offensive but less well-rounded player win the sport's highest individual award over a shortstop who doesn't have the offensive support of Ohtani or Judge but excels in every aspect on both sides of the ball, especially heading into 2024? Should a Bobby Witt Jr. or Francisco Lindor claim MVP status over a player who could potentially hit 60 home runs, 50 triples and steal 50 bases?
In the modern game, many rely on Wins Above Replacement as a guide, as it is considered a metric that incorporates everything a player does (or doesn't do) into a single calculation.
But I've noticed a lot of Mets fans citing Fangraphs WAR to back their players. Why? Oh, wait, that site has Lindor ahead of Ohtani in National League WAR, 7.2 to 6.7 (all data compiled on Wednesday). Conversely, Baseball Reference, the other major provider of this metric, has Ohtani at 7.1 and Lindor at 6.2.
Many voters and observers treat WAR as a godsend from the top of the mountain, the be-all and end-all of debate, although there is some debate about how WAR is calculated. Batting average, for example, may have lost its significance over the years, but Ty Cobb and Lindor calculated it the same way.
No voter knows all the ingredients and quantities of the WAR recipe. So is this really just the first word in WAR, “win,” to determine who best embodies the second word in MVP, “worthy”? Who will contribute most to winning? The guy who can hit 50 out of 50 with just a batting glove on? Or the guy who doesn't have a lot of power or speed, but has good defense, durability, and leadership for both Lindor and Witt, and in a lineup that doesn't have a big name like Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, or Freddie Freeman?
Unsurprisingly, the Mets are pretty much in agreement. So I asked Boston manager Alex Cora what he wanted out of 162 games: Ohtani's ridiculous but aggressive output or Lindor's all-around genius. Shaking his fist, Cora became emblematic of hitters voting for Ohtani. “It's 40/40 (actually 44 homers/46 stolen bases), but maybe 50/50. I like Lindor, and he's great and he's great, but there are other guys out there who are having seasons similar to his. [like Ohtani].”
Ok, so again, that's the simple answer: if it's a close game, pick someone you've never seen before. But I also agree with David Stearns when he said, “It's hard to believe there's a player in baseball this year who's been more valuable to a team than Francisco Lindor.”
Lindor is already tied with Ernie Banks with 30 home runs five times as a shortstop, second all-time behind Alex Rodriguez (7). At the most important times this season, Lindor has had a 15-game hitting streak and reached base in a career-best 33-game streak. In the first Wednesday game, he singled to set up a grand slam by Jesse Winkler.
He also converted double plays in the fifth, sixth and seventh innings and made a spectacular run to get speedy leadoff hitter Jarren Duran out in the top of the eighth — all in a game that came within one run of winning, 8-3, for the Mets. Lindor was already second among shortstops in outs (behind Witt). He hit another double on Wednesday and is third in the NL in that category, fifth in home runs and ninth in stolen bases.
But that's not all. Front offices and managers have plenty to worry about every day. You know what the Mets never worry about? Who's batting leadoff, playing shortstop and mentally and emotionally ready to play every inning. Before he broke his hand in June, it was Betts, not Ohtani, his Dodgers teammate, who was the MVP frontrunner. Arizona second baseman Ketel Marte was chasing Ohtani along with Lindor until he sprained his ankle last month.
Lindor has started 139 of the Mets' 140 games and played 1,215²/₃ innings through Wednesday, fourth-most in the major leagues, 1,215²/₃ more innings than Ohtani. Does Ohtani have enough offensive firepower to overcome that?
Lindor is invaluable to the Mets, but is that enough to be the National League's most valuable player while competing with a unicorn of history?
