FRANCE – France goes to the polls this Sunday in a result that experts say will likely reflect an unprecedented shift to the right and could produce the most conservative Parliament since the country was liberated after World War II.
The reasons for this can be summed up as resentment over immigration, a weak economy, a cost-of-living crisis and dissatisfaction with the current centrist government, especially among younger voters.
“Right now, France is experiencing the biggest shift to the right,” Matthieu Tilleman, an adviser to conservative candidates and parties across Europe, told Fox News Digital. “This is democracy at work. People are angry and they’re not going to take it anymore.”
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Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally group in the National Assembly, joined Jordan Bardella, leader of the Rassemblement National, during the group’s final rally before the European Parliament elections on June 9 (Photo: Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images) (Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
“French people are tired of their leaders in Paris resting on the laurels of the EU while their cities burn, youth unemployment remains high, crime continues to rise and racially motivated attacks and violence against French people persist,” Tillman added.
It’s the same factor that helped the right-wing Rally National win 31.4% of the vote in the European Union elections earlier this month, the biggest share of any French party. Founded in 1972 by Jean-Marie Le Pen, the Rally National has restructured over the past few years under the leadership of Le Pen’s daughter Marine and is now backed by 28-year-old leader Jordan Bardella.
Unrestricted immigration, which included more than 320,000 illegal immigrants last year, worries many French voters. “It’s not so much about immigrants taking jobs from French people, it’s about instability and violence,” said Leo Barincourt, a senior economist at Oxford Economics in Paris. “Immigrant-related crimes are in the news a lot, which is driving the rejection of immigration.” These include terror attacks, murders and assaults. Another factor driving voters against increased immigration is the cost it imposes on taxpayers in social security contributions, he told Fox News Digital.
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French President Emmanuel Macron speaks in Paris, Wednesday, June 12, 2024. President Emmanuel Macron addressed French voters on Wednesday for the first time since calling for early general elections following his party’s heavy defeat to the far right in the European vote. (AP Photo/Michelle Oyler)
The threat of violence may be one of the factors that has led young voters to call for the deportation of some immigrants. Heat is high around the issue, leading some musicians to create songs distributed on social media sites that have become popular among Gen-Z, ages 11 to 26. Lyrics include “I’m not leaving. Yes you’re leaving. And sooner than you think.”
Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party’s economy is not thriving either. A cost-of-living crisis following the invasion of Ukraine pushed inflation to 6.3% last February before falling to 2.1% recently. Youth unemployment remains in double digits. Moreover, house-building levels have been declining over the past decade, making rents expensive for young people. “If there’s a cost-of-living crisis, whoever is in power will bear the costs,” says Konstantinos Venetis, director of global macro at TS Lombard in London. “A disgruntled electorate inevitably favours those who are aiming for power.”
Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally (RN) and electoral list leader, poses for a selfie with supporters during a campaign rally for the European Parliament elections in Montbéliard, eastern France, on March 22, 2024. (Photo by Patrick Herzog/AFP via Getty Images) (Photo: Patrick Herzog/AFP via Getty Images)
But Venetis points out that France’s economy is no worse than other major European Union nations such as Germany and Italy, and may even be better than them. “This year is said to be the year the economy hits bottom,” he said, suggesting that economic growth is likely to improve, likely driven by increased government spending at the EU level.
Still, many young voters and rural residents voted heavily for the Rally National in EU elections earlier this month, and there seems little reason to expect the results to be any different this time. “There were very few places where the far right wasn’t the first party,” Balincow said. Those places included Paris, which he said fits with a long-held view that professionals in big cities tend to hold progressive political stances.
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French riot police use tear gas to disperse protesters during a pro-Palestinian rally at the Place de la Republique in Paris, France, on October 12, 2023. (Photo by Ibrahim Ezzat/Anadolu via Getty Images) (Ibrahim Ezzat/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The youthful Mr. Bardella may have been largely responsible for the enthusiastic vote of young people for the National Coalition. His thoughts on TikTok But he’s slightly older than many in Gen Z. “It’s not really surprising that he’s popular with younger voters,” says Mark Chandler.c“I remember young people getting excited about former President Barack Obama becoming one of the youngest presidents in U.S. history,” Hyfe market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York told Fox News Digital.
Elias Haddad, senior market strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman Bank, told Fox News Digital that a National Rally-led parliament wouldn’t lead France to leave the EU or the euro zone single currency. “A right-wing government would complicate things a little bit with France and the EU, but it wouldn’t be a threat to monetary union,” Haddad said.
Firefighters extinguish a burning vehicle during clashes between protesters and police following the death of Nael Merzouk in Nanterre, a suburb of Paris, France. (Reuters/Stephanie Lecoq)
Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen seems intent on winning, suggesting that Prime Minister Bardella should be involved in decisions about military defence, even though the French president is nominally head of the armed forces. In the Constitution, The Prime Minister is responsible for national defence.
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France’s parliamentary system requires a maximum of two rounds of voting. If no party wins a majority in the first round, the top two parties would compete in a second round, the latter of which could take place on July 7, if necessary. As of Friday, opinion polls suggested the National Rally could win 37% of the vote.
The Associated Press contributed to this story.
