Industry experts are warning that global copper demand is increasing rapidly, likely to surpass supply in the next two decades. Robert Friedland suggests we are facing an unprecedented challenge for the global economy.
He cautions that to sustain even moderate economic growth, we’ll need to extract as much copper in the coming 18 years as we have over the last 10,000 years.
Friedland has consistently communicated this message and has been proven right over time. He remarked back in 2021, “This is revenge for the old economy.” He believes insufficient investment in metal exploration for the energy transition, for about two decades, is a significant part of the issue.
He highlights that copper is crucial for both economic progress and national security. It’s essential for modern industry—playing a role in everything from power infrastructures to military supplies. Currently, copper prices are hovering over $5.00 per pound, which translates to about $11,000 per ton—an increase of 55% compared to five years ago.
The Economics of Scarcity
Even with these price surges, they remain well below the levels needed to encourage new mining ventures. Friedland expects that copper must reach around $15,000 per ton to cover the significant costs involved in establishing new mines. “At $9,000 per tonne, taking that risk just doesn’t make sense,” he stated late in 2023.
The gap between rising demand and restricted supply presents serious survival challenges. At the current consumption rate, we will need to dig up approximately 700 million tonnes of copper by 2043 just to support a yearly GDP growth of 3%.
Strategic Imperative
Beyond its economic implications, copper emerges as a strategic necessity for national defense. Friedland pointed out military concerns in the U.S. regarding a deficit in 155-millimeter howitzers, stating, “If someone points a gun at you, you need copper to respond,” mentioning this earlier this year.
This urgency is driving discussions about revitalizing the U.S. copper mining sector, which hasn’t seen significant development in decades. Relying on foreign sources poses risks to both supply stability and security.
Policy and Political Change
Friedland noted that recent U.S. administrations—especially under President Donald Trump—have recognized the crucial need for securing domestic raw material sources. “As a miner, I perceive a greater level of government backing,” he mentioned. “The current administration is rightly focused on ensuring stable access to raw materials for a country of our size.”
With copper prices moving towards his long-term predictions, investors and policy-makers are paying close attention. Once a hallmark of industrial strength, metals are once again pivotal in global shifts, now characterized by scarcity, strategic priorities, and survival needs.
