- GBP/USD fell slightly at the start of the new week as the US dollar rose modestly.
- The fundamental backdrop supports the outlook for further declines.
- A slide to 1.2960 confluence support looks like a clear possibility.
The GBP/USD pair has struggled to capitalize on its two-day-old recovery move from the 1.2975 area, a nearly two-month low hit last Thursday, and is set for the new week on a calm note. It begins. Spot prices are currently trading just below the mid-1.3000s, and it looks like the recent pullback from the 1.3435 region, the highest since March 2022, could be prolonged.
The U.S. dollar (USD) picked up some bullish buying at the start of the new week, reversing some of Friday's losses on expectations that the Federal Reserve will move ahead with gradual interest rate cuts into next year. Ta. Meanwhile, the British pound (GBP) has fallen due to growing speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates in November and December. This lends credence to the near-term negative outlook for the GBP/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, the recent breakout of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and subsequent break below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the August-September uptrend is new for bears. It was seen as a trigger. Additionally, the oscillator on the daily chart remains in negative territory and has not entered oversold territory yet, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the downside. There is.
Therefore, a weak follow-through below the psychological mark 1.3000 looks like a distinct possibility to test the confluence support at 1.2960-1.2955. The latter consists of a 100-day SMA and a 61.8% Fibo. If this level breaks, it should pave the way for a slide towards the round figure of 1.2900 on the way to horizontal support at 1.2860.
On the other hand, any attempt to recover above the 1.3100 mark will likely face resistance near the 1.3135 area, or 38.2% Fibonacci. level. The aforementioned hurdle is currently in line with the 50-day SMA and should serve as an important key point. If the strength persists above this, the bias could shift in favor of bullish traders and the GBP/USD pair could regain the 1.3200 mark. The rally could extend further towards the strong horizontal support breakpoint at 1.3250.
GBP/USD daily chart
USD price today
The table below shows the percentage change of the US dollar (USD) against major currencies today. The US dollar was the strongest against the Australian dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | australian dollar | new zealand dollar | swiss franc | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.05% | 0.08% | -0.16% | -0.01% | 0.14% | -0.02% | 0.08% | |
| EUR | -0.05% | -0.04% | -0.28% | -0.01% | 0.05% | -0.19% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | -0.08% | 0.04% | -0.23% | -0.09% | 0.07% | -0.11% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | 0.16% | 0.28% | 0.23% | 0.14% | 0.30% | 0.18% | 0.18% | |
| CAD | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.09% | -0.14% | 0.06% | 0.05% | -0.04% | |
| australian dollar | -0.14% | -0.05% | -0.07% | -0.30% | -0.06% | -0.09% | -0.14% | |
| new zealand dollar | 0.02% | 0.19% | 0.11% | -0.18% | -0.05% | 0.09% | 0.05% | |
| swiss franc | -0.08% | 0.05% | 0.05% | -0.18% | 0.04% | 0.14% | -0.05% |
The heat map shows the percentage change between major currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency is selected from the top row. For example, if you select USD from the left column and move along the horizontal line to Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box represents USD (base)/JPY (estimate).
