Leaked documents published in Germany's Bild newspaper reveal that Europe is clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing to escalate the war in Ukraine and attack NATO allies next year. Became.
The German military is preparing for a Russian “hybrid” attack in Eastern Europe, according to the paper, which received confidential military information from the German Defense Ministry.
The newspaper detailed how several potentially alarming scenarios could unfold in the coming months.
One such scenario, called “Allied Defense 2025,” is scheduled to begin in February this year with Russia mobilizing an additional 200,000 soldiers.
Emboldened by the drying up of Western financial support for Ukraine, Russia will launch a major “spring offensive” against the Ukrainian military.
A potential scenario outlines that Russia could start a war in the Baltic states by July with a “significant cyber-attack,” stirring up discontent among Russian citizens in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. There is.
By September, classified documents said, these clashes were part of Russia's push to launch “Zapad 2024”, a large-scale military “exercise” that will assemble around 50,000 Russian troops in the country's west and Belarus. It can be used as power. .
From there, the scenario depicts, Russia could move troops and intermediate-range missiles to Kaliningrad, an 86-square-mile Russian territory wedged between NATO members Lithuania and Poland.
According to the document, Russia has been using propaganda warning of an impending attack by NATO forces, with the ultimate goal of conquering an area known as the Suławki Gap, a narrow Polish-Lithuanian corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad. There is a possibility of shelling this area.
According to the plan (a worst-case scenario exercise), by December Russia would use the transition period after the U.S. presidential election to use propaganda to create a hypothetical “border conflict” and “result in numerous deaths.” may incite violence by promoting “riots”. BILD reports that sows are causing a riot in the Suwalki Gap area.
After the United Nations Security Council meeting in January 2025, Russia falsely accused its Western allies of plotting a backlash against Putin's regime and used it to ban Belarus and the Baltic states by March 2025. may be able to mobilize troops.
In this scenario, 30,000 German troops would be deployed to defend Belarus, and an estimated 70,000 Russian troops would be assembled in Belarus, according to the leaked document. By May 2025, this military buildup will prompt NATO to enact “credible deterrence measures” to prevent further Russian aggression, leading to fighting between Western and Russian forces. there is a possibility.
President Putin and Russian officials have repeatedly denied that they have any intention of escalating Ukraine's conflict beyond its borders. The plans obtained by BILD represent potential scenarios prepared by German generals, but European allies are taking the Russian threat seriously and are preparing accordingly.
Last week, Karl-Oskar Bolin, Sweden's Minister of Civil Defense, who is invited to join NATO, said at the “People and Defense” conference that war could break out in Sweden. Michael Biden, the country's top military commander, was quick to echo this sentiment, saying, “We need to be as prepared as possible at all levels of society.” CNBC wrote.
German Defense Ministry officials did not mention the specific scenarios outlined in the document, but told BILD that “it is especially important to consider different scenarios, even if they are very unlikely.” “In training, it can be said to be part of daily military operations.”
