Republicans are becoming increasingly confident about their chances of defeating Sen. Jon Tester (Democrat) in the hotly contested Montana Senate election, which would significantly increase their chances of retaking the Senate next year.
Several recent polls have shown Republican businessman Tim Sheehy leading Tester by a few points — within the margin of error but not the result Democrats are hoping for in a state seen as crucial to their ability to retain control of the Senate.
The race is still expected to be close, but several election forecasters have changed their assessment of the race from a 50-50 split to a Republican advantage.
The election appears to hinge on whether Tester can run his campaign around local issues, as he aims to do, or focus on national issues in the context of the larger 2024 election cycle that would favor Sheehy and the Republican Party.
“He's trying to present himself as kind of an outsider in Washington and he's trying to focus on Montana issues rather than what's going on within the Democratic caucus, and I think people are finally starting to see through that,” said Chuck DeNault, former executive director of the Montana Republican Party.
Montana is a reliably Republican state in presidential elections and is likely to vote easily for former President Trump for a third consecutive term in November, but Tester is also a household name in the state.
He was first elected in 2006 and has been re-elected twice since, each time by a few percentage points. Montana has voted for a Republican presidential candidate every time this century, but it has elected Democrats and had a Democratic governor as recently as five years ago.
But the state has consistently voted Republican and Tester is the last Democrat to hold public office there.
Throughout his tenure, Tester has sought to highlight his deep ties to the state as a third-generation farmer who brings “Montana values” to his work as a senator. During his campaign, Tester focused on issues unique to Montana, arguing for protection of public lands, investment in rural areas and safety for the Native American tribes that make up a significant portion of the state's population.
Tester has sought to distance himself from the national Democratic Party and has been critical of his own party on certain issues. He has said he will not endorse any candidate for president and did not attend the Democratic Convention last month, when Vice President Harris officially became the Democratic nominee.
Observers have predicted from the start that this will be one of the closest and most competitive Senate races in the country, and it remains so: Republicans are already on track to pick up a Senate seat in West Virginia in November, and need just one more seat to reclaim their Senate majority.
Recent polls haven't shown good news for Tester.
An AARP poll last month had Sheehy leading Tester by 6 points, while an internal survey by the Senate Republican campaign had Sheehy ahead by 4 points. Several election forecasters, including the Cook Political Report and Sabatos Crystal Ball, have changed their assessment of the race from close to a Republican lead.
“After almost 18 years in Washington, Montanans are tired of a two-faced Tester who pretends to be a moderate in Montana while voting for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in Washington,” said Maggie Abboud, spokeswoman for the Republican Senatorial Committee. Answer On shift.
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill also projects the race as favored by the Republicans, with Sheehy giving himself about a 75 percent chance of winning.
Experts say Tester has overcome election hurdles so far, but this fall he faces his biggest challenge yet.
“For a long time, it's been possible for a Democrat to campaign as a Montanan and seriously compete with and beat a Republican campaigning as a Republican,” said Lee Banville, director of the University of Montana journalism program and a political analyst.
“And what we've seen is that politics here are becoming more and more national, with more migration to the state, more polarization in the country, making it harder to put together the kind of coalition that Tester was able to pull off.”
Sheehy and Republicans have sought to attack Tester by linking him to Presidents Biden and Harris. Testers voted overwhelmingly This is consistent with Biden's position.
Republican strategist Eric Iverson, a former state Republican Party chairman and a pollster for Sheehy's campaign, said Tester is facing a stronger candidate than he has faced in Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL.
“He's never faced a candidate or an opponent like Mr. Sheehy who is policy articulate, knowledgeable and has a really impressive resume,” he said.
Iverson also argued that Tester's strategy has focused on attacking the character of Sheehy and past opponents rather than focusing on Montana's issues.
Democrats have repeatedly attacked Sheehy's record, citing his enormous wealth as a businessman and accuse him of cheating He grew up in Minnesota but has lived in Montana for the past 10 years.
Sheehy has also faced criticism for some stories he has told about his past, including: gave contradictory explanations The circumstances surrounding the shooting and The success of his companyBridger Aerospace.
But Sheehy's supporters say the controversy will not determine the outcome of the election.
The Hill has reached out to Sheehy and Tester's campaigns for comment.
Democrats argue the race is close and that Tester has consistently outperformed other Democrats in Montana, giving him a clear path to victory.
Tester campaign spokeswoman Monica Robinson told The Hill that Tester is “used to tough campaigns” but that he has won in the past thanks to the support of a wide range of groups and a strong track record.
“He's won three consecutive elections because he has a strong base of support across the state, including independents and Republicans, and a proven track record of getting results for Montana,” she said.
tester He told Punchbowl News He argued that the race is “within the margin of error” and that an AARP poll that put him even with Harris in the state is “inconsistent with reality.”
Democratic strategist Antjuan Searight said Tester can run a successful campaign as a Montanan outside of the national environment, saying he has delivered “meaningful results” for the state in a bipartisan way more than any other senator.
Tester said on his campaign website that he supports Biden's bipartisan infrastructure bill that would improve the state's “aging” infrastructure, and that he opposes the administration over the need for increased border security and administrative regulations that “harm rural America.”
“Election after election, his ability to deliver more than just political influence, and to focus on what's happening on the streets of Montana, not necessarily what's happening on K Street, I think that's one of the reasons he's well positioned to win,” Seawright said.
Banville said Tester needs an enthusiastic young vote, as he did in 2018, the only time he won more than 50% of the vote, and noted that an abortion measure Montanans will be voting on could further boost the turnout needed to win.
“It's going to be a voter turnout issue, but it's a really narrow path,” he said. “It's going to have to be a perfect match.”
