Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is seeking to reframe President Trump’s significant legislation after a challenging week on Capitol Hill.
The deadline set for July 4 to sign the bill is now uncertain due to ongoing disputes over spending cuts and other contentious issues related to the legislation. However, Thune aims to get things back on track by assembling a small working group to discuss crucial aspects of the bill, as reported by Republicans familiar with his strategy.
Thune anticipates that various Senate committees will create enough momentum to consolidate the bill’s components by the end of the month through substantial compromises.
Yet, several rank-and-file senators who strongly oppose the bill have not yet had the opportunity to review any significant texts. Additionally, Elon Musk’s sharp remarks, describing the bill as a “pickled pork pile,” have further complicated its political landscape.
A GOP senator close to Thune’s plan mentioned that parts of the bill could be divided into smaller Republican working groups in the Senate, especially regarding nearly $800 billion in cuts to Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).
“Thune will do what he did for previous issues people care deeply about. He’ll form a small group. No one can claim they’re not being heard,” the GOP senator noted.
Thune’s approach to involving more members of the caucus in negotiations is a departure from former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY.), who typically kept the main deal’s details more tightly held.
With 53 seats in the Senate, Republicans can afford only three dissenting votes to pass the bill. Democrats are not anticipated to support it, and it won’t fall under the filibuster’s rules.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) informed a GOP colleague last week that two Republican senators are already likely to vote “no” on the bill.
Thune expressed hope that new momentum could be injected into the bill next week, aiming to proceed “full speed” toward the July 4 deadline.
“We’re continually meeting with groups and committees,” he shared. “Full speed, a lot of discussions, and everyone’s feeling comfortable.”
The bill’s most significant hurdle lies in the demands from many Republican senators for more significant deficit reductions. A coalition of lawmakers, including Senators Susan Collins (R-Maine), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), are advocating for substantial cuts.
This situation has prompted some Republican senators to explore alternative strategies for reducing the deficit without heavily impacting Medicaid and SNAP.
A fresh proposal, which has garnered interest from various Senate Finance Committee members, involves Senators Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), and Tom Tillis (R-N.C.) addressing “waste, fraud, and abuse” in the Medicare Advantage program.
Cassidy also has a bipartisan proposal alongside Senator Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), targeting issues where insurance companies claim unnecessary diagnoses for Medicare, potentially generating up to $275 billion over a decade.
Marshall has reported receiving numerous complaints from seniors regarding Medicare Advantage, saying, “Many seniors feel they’ve been taken advantage of. They can’t see their preferred doctors.”
Medicare Advantage Plans are structured on individual patient health, which can incentivize companies to exaggerate beneficiaries’ illnesses.
However, some Republicans oppose the idea of depending on Medicare to achieve spending cuts, notwithstanding supporters’ claims of targeting “waste, fraud, and abuse.”
“I’ve heard talk about Medicare, and it strikes me as absurd,” remarked Senator Holly. “I don’t want to endorse that concept.”
In another development, Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is proposing adjustments to the Federal Reserve’s approach to bank reserves, a policy change activated during the 2008 financial crisis to stabilize the banking sector.
“Historically, the Federal Reserve didn’t pay interest on reserves until 2008. The change cost about $100 billion annually,” Cruz explained, noting that this idea is “certainly being discussed” as part of the effort to enhance the bill’s financial outlook.
Senate Republican leaders assert that legislation passed by the House would reduce spending by $1.6 trillion over the next decade, while some GOP senators are pushing to elevate that figure to around $2 trillion.
Thune has convened small discussions with GOP colleagues to address concerns about Medicaid reforms, with many lawmakers expressing satisfaction with their engagement in negotiations thus far.
Earlier this year, Senator Moran warned against Medicaid reforms that jeopardize the financial health of rural hospitals, indicating he wouldn’t support changes unless he remains actively involved with negotiators.
“We don’t anticipate this bill will transform into a House bill, and we’ll work on priorities before the Finance and Budget Committees,” Moran noted, highlighting concerns with reforms to the healthcare provider tax.
Discontent among Republicans is growing regarding the latest Congressional Budget Office estimate suggesting that 10.9 million Americans might lose health insurance due to changes in Medicaid and Affordable Care Act subsidies.
Concerns have also been raised by Collins, Murkowski, and Moran regarding efforts to reduce SNAP benefits and shift more administrative costs to states.
Amidst these issues, Senators Murkowski, Moran, Thom Tillis, John Curtis (R-Utah), and Shelley Moore Capito are questioning the brisk phase-out of renewable energy tax credits stipulated in the House bill.
Capito expressed worry that the language would reduce federal tax support for West Virginia’s Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub unless construction begins by year-end 2025.
“We need to be under construction by 2025, or it poses a problem for us, given the potential for job creation and energy opportunities,” she stated.
Republican senators agree that the House-passed bill would struggle to secure a majority in the Senate without substantial revisions and anticipate further negotiations before it advances to the floor.
“This is an ongoing effort,” commented Senator John Cornyn (R-Texas), a member of the Senate GOP Leadership Team. “While our margins aren’t as slim as in the House, we’re looking to achieve a solid majority.”
