Trump’s Support Among Republican-Leaning Independents Declines
Harry Enten, a senior data analyst at CNN, expressed concerns on Monday about President Donald Trump’s diminishing backing from Republican-leaning independents, particularly as the midterm elections approach.
According to Enten, only 53% of these independents currently approve of Trump’s performance, which marks a significant 20-point drop compared to his approval rating at this same time during his first term. The decline in support from this demographic has been notable since the 2024 election, where Trump garnered overwhelming approval.
He noted, “He has fallen from grace and is now completely destroyed. Currently, only 53% of Republican-leaning independents support the U.S. president, which is markedly different from just Republicans. In the first term, we were at 83%.” Right now, that figure has taken a hit, dropping by 20 points, with many traditional supporters indicating they are wavering.
In the previous election cycle, an impressive 91% of these independents favored Trump over former Vice President Kamala Harris. Now, however, only 53% approve of his job performance.
Enten pointed out, “I’m not that good at math, but I believe that’s a 38-point drop. This is a 38-point decrease since the 2024 election. As I said, this is Donald Trump’s core group, and they are waving goodbye.” He indicated that a mere approval rate of slightly above 50% among these traditionally loyal voters reflects a significant shift, noting that this data is roughly 18 months old.
Furthermore, Enten cautioned that while Republicans previously enjoyed an 83-point advantage from this group in the last election, the current numbers suggest a possible loss in the upcoming midterms. “These are not numbers where Republicans can win. These are numbers where Republicans can lose,” he stated. “So right now, support for President Trump is collapsing among Republican-leaning independents.”
He emphasized that if this trend continues into the 2026 election, it could have catastrophic implications for the Republican Party. “That would be absolutely devastating for the Republican Party,” he added.
Recent polling data reflects a broader discontent, indicating that 62% of Americans disapprove of Trump as president. Additionally, 66% disapprove of his actions regarding the Iran conflict, while 76% are dissatisfied with his handling of the economy amidst rising gas prices that have surged over 47% since the war began.
