The impending November rematch between President Biden and former President Trump could be decided by just a handful of states.
Six months after Election Day, all eyes are on seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This fall, 93 electors will be up for grabs.
In 2020, Biden won every state except North Carolina. In a recent opinion poll Trump has an advantage over the incumbent in several of these battlegrounds this cycle.
The race for the White House could be fought in the following battleground states:
arizona
Biden last won Arizona by about a third of a percentage point, making it the first Democratic president to win in a Republican stronghold since the 1990s.
But Trump has a roughly 6-point lead over Biden in Arizona, according to the Decision Desk/The Hill average, so border issues will play a key role in November.
Meanwhile, Democrats are targeting the Grand Canyon State, where 11 electoral votes are at stake, as one of several places where issues around reproductive rights could boost turnout to boost the party’s support. I’m paying attention.
The state just repealed a near-total abortion ban from the Civil War era, and organizers are working to get a bill on the ballot that would protect the procedure.
Republicans make up the largest group of registered voters in Arizona, but Democrats outnumber voters in the state who are not affiliated with either major party. voter registration statistics From last month.
The state’s Democratic Senate candidate, Rep. Ruben Gallego, leads Republican rival Kali Lake in the closely watched race to replace independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, according to a New York Times poll. , leading Biden. Mr. Gallego had 45%, Mr. Lake 41%, Mr. Biden 42% and Mr. Trump 49%.
georgia
Biden turned Georgia blue for the first time in decades in 2020, defeating Trump by less than 12,000 votes.
But both men are facing a rematch in the Peach State, and the 2024 race lacks any key down-ballot races or signs of the big turnout that boosted Biden four years ago.
Georgia has 16 electoral votes in November, and the DDHQ/The Hill polling average gives Trump about 6 points, or about 49% to Biden’s 43%.
A Times poll shows Trump with an even stronger lead, giving the Republican a 10-point lead.
Last cycle, Georgian rushed to the voting booth Electing Democrat Jon Ossoff as the state’s first Jewish senator and pastor. Raphael Warnock (Democrat) is the state’s first black senator.
Biden will need to ramp up his campaign in the state, which has twice the turnout as Democratic candidates in this year’s Republican primary. large black population Amid signs that he is struggling across the block.
Former Georgia Lieutenant Governor Jeff Duncan (R), one of the few prominent Republicans to support Mr. Biden in November, called on his fellow Republicans not to “align” with Mr. Trump. But it’s unclear whether Biden can repeat his success in the Peach State this November.
michigan
In the battleground state of Michigan, which Biden won by almost 3 points in 2020, a large number of protest votes from progressives and Arab Americans flooded the incumbent against the incumbent in the Democratic primary, and similar votes are expected to follow in other states such as Wisconsin. A box boycott ensued.
Arab Americans love Biden last cycle victoryand questions remain about whether the critical bloc will return to his column after expressing outrage in the primaries.
First lady Jill Biden visited the Great Lakes state this week, and Michigan Democratic Party Chairwoman LaVora Burns said the trip “proves that the path to the White House runs through Michigan.”
Trump is up 4 points in the state, according to the DDHQ/The Hill average. There are 15 electoral votes cast.
With its large Arab-American population and large student population, strategists say the presidential race in the Great Lakes state could serve as a notable bellwether for the broader 2024 election. .
nevada
Along with Arizona, Nevada could also be a major swing state in the Sun Belt this November. Both states have significant Latino populations, as both candidates target voters of color this fall.
In 2020, Biden won by a margin of 2.4 points. In 2016, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton narrowly defeated Trump in Nevada.
The DDHQ/The Hill average currently has Trump leading by nearly 7 points. A New York Times poll showed Biden with a 12-point lead in the head-to-head race, the worst result among the poll’s battleground states.
As in Arizona, a third-party candidate in the Silver State could further erode support for major party candidates. This is another battleground area where Democratic Senate candidates are faring better than the president, with Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) holding a 2-point advantage over Republican Sam Brown. .
Six electoral votes are scheduled.
north carolina
Biden won most of the battleground states in 2020, but Trump won the state by about 1.5 percentage points after winning North Carolina by a slightly larger margin in 2016.
The Biden campaign is now aiming to return North Carolina to the Democratic fold, but admits it will require “tireless effort” over the next six months.
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, said last month that he thought Mr. Biden had a chance to win the Tar Heel state. Former President Obama was the last Democrat to win the state back in 2008. And Republicans are grappling with the potential political liability of gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who has come under intense scrutiny for past controversial comments.
Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, rates North Carolina. As a Republicanthe other swing states are toss-ups.
Sixteen electoral votes have been cast. The DDHQ/The Hill average gives Trump a 4.6 point lead.
pennsylvania
Last month’s Pennsylvania primary highlighted weaknesses in both Biden and Trump as they race toward a November showdown.
Nikki Haley, who withdrew from the race nearly two months ago, received more than 150,000 votes in the Keystone State and came close to 20 percent in several counties.
Her numbers didn’t prevent Trump from winning a winner-take-all primary delegate race, but they were a red flag for the former president in a key battleground state.
On the other side of the aisle, Mr. Biden’s own protest voting push has included rallying voters to boycott the incumbent at polling places with “Abandon Biden” voices, citing concerns about the administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war. I was facing it.
But like in Nevada, there are relatively popular Democratic senators running for re-election. In this case, it’s Bob Casey, who has consistently topped Biden in polls, and his Republican rival, David McCormick.
The DDHQ/The Hill average shows Biden winning by 1.7 points in states he won by 1.2 points in 2020. A recent poll by The New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer shows Trump with a slightly more 3-point lead.
There are 19 electoral votes at stake in Pennsylvania.
wisconsin
biden beat Wisconsin in President Trump had a lead of less than 1 point in the 2020 cycle, according to the DDHQ/The Hill average.
A Quinnipiac University poll released this month showed Biden’s lead over Trump in the head-to-head race in Wisconsin narrowed from 6 points to just 1 point when third-party candidates were included. It has been suggested that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and others will support him. Candidates may be a major spoiler.
Biden visited the Badger State earlier this month to tout a $3.3 billion investment by Microsoft to build a new artificial intelligence data center in the state, drawing a contrast to a Trump-era investment plan that never materialized. Ta.
The Republican National Convention will be held in Milwaukee this summer, and President Trump has hinted that he may announce his 2024 running mate.
“It’s a really important state for us. We have to win Wisconsin,” President Trump said on Scripps News. This week’s interview. “We want to win. I think if we beat Wisconsin, we win everything.”
Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes.
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