Here’s How Abortion May Shape Biden’s Chances In The 2024 Election

  • Abortion has become a key issue for Democratic President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign, but political analysts told the Daily Caller News Foundation that while abortion may help in November, much remains to be done. He said it was floating in the air.
  • Voters in New York and Maryland will decide on abortion access this fall, and activists in Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada and South Dakota They are working overtime to get their initiatives approved before that happens. November.
  • “Remember, there are actually very few voters for whom abortion is the only issue. This is true for abortion opponents as well as pro-abortion advocates,” said Charles S. Bullock III. Richard B. Russell, professor of political science and public and international affairs at the University of Georgia, told DCNF.

Democratic President Joe Biden has made abortion a mainstay of his November campaign, but political experts who spoke to the Daily Caller News Foundation say it could help him get re-elected. The effects on sexuality are not necessarily certain.

Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said in June that she would make abortion a “top issue” in the run-up to the election, and Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have been active in campaigning since then. We are working on this. trail in gathering All parts of the country are focusing on this issue. The president also invited Kate Cox, the woman at the center of a controversial Texas abortion case, to the State of the Union address in March, but the jury is still out on whether the president will reap the rewards of that effort. He says he hasn’t reached a conclusion. Addressed to political experts who spoke with DCNF. (Related: Biden chooses to omit word ‘abortion’ during State of the Union address)

Michael McKenna, a visiting fellow in the Heritage Foundation’s Office of the Executive Vice President and president of MWR Strategies, told DCNF that abortion is not typically the “only issue” that draws voters to polling places on both sides of the aisle. . She noted that abortion is a “very soft secondary issue” that often “lags behind the economy, immigration, health care, crime and education” in voters’ priorities.

“It’s going to be negative for a very small number of voters,” McKenna said.

Nevertheless, Biden is hopeful that he can gain support in the polls in states like Arizona, which he narrowly won by about 10,000 votes in 2020. according to To Politico.president Said At a rally in the state on March 19, voters said he “desperately” needed their help.

“Only six or seven states will decide the outcome of this election. They are highly contested states, and this is one of them,” Biden said.

Arizona is in the midst of a referendum, with activists gathering thousands of signatures to put an amendment on the state’s constitution that would enshrine abortion on the ballot in November.Harris visited sued the state in March and targeted the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022 He implored voters to keep him in office to block a national abortion ban.

“So, in conclusion today I ask: Arizona, are you ready to make your voice heard?” Do we trust women? Do we believe in reproductive freedom? Do we believe in America’s promise? Are you ready to fight for it? And if we fight, we win,” Harris told the crowd.

U.S. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris stand on stage and wave to the crowd during the Reproductive Freedom Campaign Rally at George Mason University in Manassas, Virginia, on January 23, 2024. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Voters in New York and Maryland will decide on abortion access this fall, and activists in Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada and South Dakota are They are working overtime to get their efforts approved ahead of November. , according to Go to Spectrum News. Mr. Biden has expressed his support for his get-out-the-vote efforts. saying “Democracy won” in November when Ohio passed an abortion amendment that would allow the procedure up to birth in some cases.

Charles S. Bullock III, the Richard B. Russell Professor of Political Science and Professor of Public and International Affairs at the University of Georgia, told the DCNF that by supporting the abortion voting bill, Mr. Biden has rallied against Mr. Trump in some states. He said he believes he can gain a sufficient advantage.

“Remember, there are a really small number of voters for whom abortion is the only issue, and this is true for both pro-abortion and anti-abortion voters,” Block said. “But if you can sway even a relatively small percentage of the electorate based on that one issue, it could easily become decisive. There’s no guarantee that it will. It could happen. If Democrats look at what’s happened in the past, especially in some very red states where the abortion issue has been widely approved, logically they can say, “Oh, it’ll work in Ohio.” So you can logically conclude that if it works in Oklahoma, it will work in Arizona or Georgia. It’s Wisconsin. ”

Trump currently holds a narrow lead over Biden, which has been gaining momentum since October. according to RealClearPolitics poll average.

But the abortion vote has so far been unsuccessful in motivating Democratic voters. according to From a Politico analysis. Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe, none of the five abortion initiatives on the ballot saw a significant increase in Democratic turnout.

“It would be unwise for candidates of either party to think that an abortion rights voting system will automatically determine the outcome of a race,” said John Labombard, a Democratic consultant in swing and red states. he told Politico.

Biden has also sought to appeal to moderates on the issue, with Democrats complaining that Biden’s talking points focus on a small number of abortion cases, such as rape and saving the mother’s life. , and conflicts with his supporters continue. Kelsey Pritchard, national director of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, told DCNF that despite Biden’s attempts, his record on abortion will sooner or later be dismissed as “radical.” Ta.

“Look at his administration. There is nothing safe, legal or unusual about mail-order abortion pills, extorting funds from pregnancy centers, and administrative conduct,” she said. “I understand that there are media reports that say Biden is a moderate on this issue, that Biden is in line with the American people, and that Trump is an extremist, but if you look at their actual positions, it seems that Biden is in agreement. Compare that to the fact that he doesn’t want a single restriction nationally and he wants to completely remove any pro-life protections from the books. Compare that to President Trump. And President Trump’s 15 weeks seems right to me, which means Trump is a moderate and Biden is an extreme.”

The Biden campaign did not respond to DCNF’s request for comment.

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