President-elect Trump will take office just as Iran has the potential to become the world's 10th nuclear power, but it is unclear how either side will approach the other.
Judging by President Trump's previous inauguration, this would suggest that he will come out with a bellicose tone, mounting a “maximum pressure” campaign to “bankrupt” the administration. His nominee for secretary of state, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida), is the unyielding Iran hawk in the Senate.
Mr. Rubio spoke after the administration fired 200 missiles toward Tel Aviv last month.It only threatens the survival of the government. There is an opportunity to influence and change their criminal behavior through maximum pressure and direct and unreasonable measures. ”
This could result in the restoration or removal of oil sanctions exemptions. That could mean threatening not to do business with countries that buy Iranian fuel products.
Congressman Michael Walz (R-Florida), whom President Trump nominated as national security adviser, has a similar opinion.
Last month, when the Biden administration urged Israel to keep its counterattack “proportional,” Walz accused President Biden of pressuring Israel “again not to do more than is necessary.”
A large banner depicting Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is placed next to a ballistic missile in Baharestan Square in Tehran, Iran. (Hossein Beris/Middle East Image/Middle East Image/AFP via Getty Images)
He suggested Israel would attack oil facilities on Kharg Island and Iran's nuclear power plant at Natanz, a move the Biden team feared Iran would see as escalation.
Last month, President Trump appeared to rule out US involvement in any effort to remove Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini and his government. “We can't be fully involved in all of that. We can't escape on our own. Let's accept the reality,” he said.
“I want to see Iran be very successful. The only thing is that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons.”
President Trump has said he does not want Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, but he has not said how he would prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
“I don't intend to have a negative impact on Iran. We are going to be friendly with Iran, maybe, but maybe not. But we are going to be friendly, I hope “We're going to be friendly with Iran, but we can't have nuclear weapons,” he said at a news conference in New Jersey in August.
President Trump suggested last month that Israel would attack Iran's nuclear facilities.
In response to the Iranian missile attack, he suggested that Israel should “strike nuclear first and worry about the rest later.”
Iran said on Thursday it was operating “advanced” centrifuges after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board accused it of failing to cooperate with the U.N. nuclear watchdog. . Without cooperation, the world will be left in the dark about how quickly Iran is advancing its technological capabilities to use uranium fuel in bombs.
Behruz Kamalvandi, a spokesman for Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, said in response to the criticism that Iran would “significantly expand its enrichment capacity.”
Iran hides missile, drone program under the guise of commercial front to evade sanctions
What stands between Iran and a fully formed nuclear arsenal is both a political and a technical question.
Nicole Grajewski, a nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the country has enough fissile material to use in nuclear weapons, but the process of turning it into a warhead would take six to 12 months. There is a possibility that this may occur.
“That's when Iran is most vulnerable,” she said. “Iran could probably make a dirty bomb from its current stockpile.”
Iran's nuclear program has been hampered for years by international sanctions, COVID-19, high-profile assassinations of nuclear scientists, and attacks and sabotage on nuclear facilities led by the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad. .
And announcing that it has nuclear weapons could threaten Iran's long-held goal of regional hegemony.
Simone Reeden, a former assistant secretary of defense for Middle East affairs, said, “Iran is less isolated than it was four years ago, but it's still pretty isolated.'' Announcing a nuclear program would start an arms race in the Middle East. ” he predicted.
“Saudi Arabia and the UAE will decide to pursue nuclear weapons the moment Iran declares they have nuclear weapons. Another action they can and will take is to deepen their relationship with Israel. That’s it.”
Iran's nuclear fuel stockpile increases significantly ahead of Trump's return, UN agency discovers
Iran also understands that building a nuclear bomb would likely provoke a military response from Israel and the United States under the Trump administration.
Heavy weapons such as ballistic missiles, air defense systems and unmanned aerial vehicles are on display at Baharestan Square in Tehran, Iran, on September 26 to commemorate the 44th anniversary of the eight-year war with Iraq. (Fateme Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images)
After years of attempts to assassinate President Trump, Iranians appear to be unsure whether to approach relations with the United States under Trump in a combative or diplomatic manner. is. Just last month, they told President Biden that they would no longer make any effort to kill the president-elect.
“I think there were mixed signals from things like the Trump transition team. You know, you see the appointment of Brian Hook, who is behind this maximum pressure and sanctions.” Grazyewski said. But in the meantime, Trump special envoy Elon Musk has reportedly met with Iranian officials to discuss how the two countries can ease tensions.
“I think he's being intentionally opaque,” Reeden said. “I think he doesn't want to demonstrate his ability as a negotiator.”
“Maximum pressure will probably be restored,” said Behnam Taleburu, an Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “America's partners are now asking what the goal is: Is it toward regime collapse or a deal? What if the Iranians don't negotiate in good faith? ”
former Israeli official suggested Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may launch an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities after receiving the green light from the Trump administration. But many of Iran's centrifuges and enrichment facilities are located deep underground, complicating bombing campaigns against Iran.
Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Khamenei. (Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images)
To reach them, Israel would need American mass ordnance penetrators (MOPs), or “bankbuster bombs.”
“That would require U.S. involvement, whether it was a direct transfer, which is not really being discussed right now, but it would escalate considerably, or whether Israel would let the U.S. carry out this mission as well. It’s one or the other,” Grajewski said.
The Trump team will also make it a priority to bring Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords and solidify the Sunni Muslim alliance against Iran. But Saudi Arabia insists that such an agreement would require the United States and Israel to recognize a Palestinian state.
“The next administration wants to quickly calm this kinetic energy in the Middle East because we as a nation have big fish to fry,” Reeden said.
Click to get the FOX News app
The United States has long considered shifting its military focus from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific. The outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas after October 7 brought the focus back to the Arab world.
