President Biden and former President Trump are set to meet again this November after becoming their party’s nominees, but they also face a relatively high-profile third-party challenge from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are doing.
Kennedy, the nephew of former President Kennedy, is running an independent presidential campaign and is trying to gather signatures to get on the ballot in as many states as possible. He has only received enough signatures in about six states so far, but early polling suggests he may be the third-party candidate most likely to sway the race. be.
Kennedy averages nearly 10 percent in The Hill/Decision Desk polls, making him the most popular third-party presidential candidate since businessman Ross Perot in 1992. It becomes.In a five-way race that includes Jill Stein and Cornell, West, Kennedy gets 10 percent on RealClearPolitics. National average.
President Kennedy took a step toward the general election last month by selecting tech lawyer and entrepreneur Nicole Shanahan as his running mate. The decision was made relatively early in the general election calendar, as some states require independent candidates to have a running mate in order to appear on the ballot.
However, given recent history, it is highly likely that Mr. Kennedy will seriously challenge Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump in the election, or win any state. Although Perot was the most successful third-party candidate in modern history, he received only about 19 percent of the vote and won zero electoral votes.
Still, third-party candidates have the potential to influence election results and serve as spoilers for major party candidates. Polls show that Kennedy’s candidacy may hurt Biden slightly, but the difference in impact on Biden and Trump appears to be small, making the results inconclusive. It’s far from a thing.
A HarrisX/Forbes poll conducted on March 25th found Trump leading Biden. direct confrontation 3 point difference, 46 percent to 43 percent. But with Kennedy, West and Stein in the race, Kennedy received 12% of the vote and Trump still leads Biden by 3 points.
Meanwhile, other polls show some concern about Mr. Biden when considering third-party candidates. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted March 21-25 showed Biden in the lead. 3 point lead Only when facing Trump. However, including Kennedy, West, and Stein, who received 13% support, Trump had a 1 point lead.
Democrats have recently stepped up efforts to address the risks third-party and independent candidates pose to Biden’s re-election bid. The Democratic National Committee has assembled a team to communicate about potential spoilers and conduct research on opponents.
Biden leads Trump by 3 points in Reuters/Ipsos poll Public opinion polls from early March, if the respondent has to choose between the two. But the poll, which included Kennedy and other candidates and included the ability for respondents to say they were unsure, gave Trump a one-point lead.
Kennedy is the latest candidate from a storied political family that includes a former president, attorney general and eight-term senator. He could appeal to Democratic voters who are disillusioned with Biden and see his last name as having a storied past in the party.
But Mr. Kennedy’s campaign has been criticized by many in his family, who are supporting Mr. Biden instead. Many people visited Biden at the White House to commemorate St. Patrick’s Day.
Kennedy’s political views are a bit complex and may appeal to different parts of the political spectrum. He has worked as an environmental lawyer for many years, advocating for more regulations and closing the gap between rich and poor, but his vaccine skepticism and controversial comments about the coronavirus pandemic have caused dissatisfaction. It seems likely that it will attract the attention of Republicans who have
Kennedy rejected the idea that his campaign could only send one of the two leading candidates to the White House.
“Our campaign is a spoiler. I agree with that too,” he said said at his own campaign event. Shanahan announced as vice presidential candidate. “This is a spoiler for President Biden and President Trump. It’s a spoiler for War Machine. It’s a spoiler for Wall Street, Big Agriculture, Big Tech…and all corrupt politicians and corporations.”
However, many challenges remain before Mr. Kennedy can move within range of Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, who are far ahead in the polls. The Commission on Presidential Debates requires candidates to score at least 15 percent in the national average of selected polling organizations, which could be an improvement that Kennedy will need to make in order to take the stage in the fall. Highly sexual.
Even now, Kennedy’s race hasn’t changed much in the polls compared to a two-person race, but in an election expected to be closer to 2024, small changes could make a difference. .
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