Poll Shows Hochul with Strong Lead Ahead of Election Day

New York Governor Kathy Hochul is reportedly enjoying a favorable position as she approaches Election Day, based on a recent Siena University poll.

The Democratic incumbent is leading Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman by 54% to 40% among likely voters, giving her a 14-point advantage, according to the survey released on Wednesday.

This lead has increased from the prior month’s poll, where she had a margin of 9 points (50% to 41%), indicating a shift in voter sentiment.

“As we enter the final stretch, Hochul holds a significant 14-point lead, and Blakeman appears to be running out of time to close this ever-widening gap,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg.

In the race for state attorney general, the Democratic incumbent Letitia James shows a similar lead over Republican Saritha Komatireddy, at 54% to 39%.

Meanwhile, in the state comptroller race, Democratic incumbent Tom DiNapoli is favored by 59% of respondents, while Republican Joseph Hernandez has 32% support.

An interesting point from the poll revealed that registered independents prefer Democrats Hochul and James by 10 and 11 points over their Republican opponents, respectively. Just last month, Blakeman was leading among independents by 5 points.

In 2022, Hochul’s victory over GOP competitor Lee Zeldin came by a narrow margin, largely due to Zeldin’s success with independent voters.

With Democrats outnumbering Republicans more than two to one in New York, it’s crucial for a Republican candidate to gain traction among independent voters to have any feasible chance at winning statewide.

“To summarize, Republicans must have a strong showing upstate and in the downstate suburbs to counterbalance the Democratic dominance in New York City, and they need to secure independents convincingly to match the Democrats’ substantial enrollment lead,” Greenberg added.

With only a week until Election Day, the dynamics are close, as Blakeman and Hochul are virtually tied in upstate areas and the downstate suburbs. Hochul leads significantly with independents and has a notable 67% to 23% lead among likely New York City voters while performing evenly in the suburbs and upstate.

Interestingly, a recent Quinnipiac University poll mirrored Hochul’s 14-point advantage, reporting a 55% to 41% lead, although Blakeman was ahead among independents in that survey, 51% to 44%.

However, internal polls from Blakeman’s campaign suggest the race might be closer than these numbers indicate, reflecting a single-digit competition.

The Siena poll revealed a more pessimistic outlook among voters regarding the direction of the United States compared to New York. Approximately 66% of voters expressed concern about the national trajectory, contrasted with 49% who felt New York is heading in the wrong direction.

A noticeable gender divide favors Hochul, with 59% of female voters supporting her versus 36% for Blakeman, creating a significant 23-point gap. Hochul maintains a slight lead among male voters as well, 50% to 44%.

Among different demographics, she enjoys robust support among Latino voters, and a staggering 81% to 16% advantage among Black voters, while white voter support appears evenly divided between her and Blakeman.

As Hochul seeks a full four-year term, there are positive indicators for her campaign. For the first time in five years of Siena polling, a majority of voters—51%—view her favorably, compared to 45% who view her unfavorably, a slight uptick from last month’s figures.

In terms of job performance, 51% of respondents approve of Hochul’s work, while 46% disapprove, which also marks an improvement from previous figures.

For Blakeman, the favorability rating stands at 39%, with 40% viewing him unfavorably, and the remainder being either undecided or indifferent.

When it comes to predicting the election’s outcome, a clear majority (68%) believe Hochul will win, while only 23% think Blakeman stands a chance.

Voters are split regarding who could make New York more affordable: 30% support Hochul, 27% lean towards Blakeman, and 35% feel neither would be effective.

A plurality of voters considered New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s endorsement of Hochul a positive influence (45%), while 30% viewed it negatively. On the other hand, nearly half of respondents viewed President Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman as detrimental to his campaign, with just 29% seeing it as beneficial.

The Siena Poll was conducted between October 19 and 22, surveying 807 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Election Day is set for November 3.