Houthi forces, backed by Iran, are suggesting that the Red Sea could turn into another key chokepoint for global shipping. This situation poses potential risks for energy markets and international trade, especially as tensions with Iran increase.
The Houthis initiated their involvement with missile and drone strikes on Israel in early April and have subsequently indicated that they might target vessels in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. This vital corridor links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, which raises alarms about the conflict potentially spreading beyond the Strait of Hormuz, further complicating global trade.
Experts caution that if the Houthis resume targeting ships, it could lead to a second maritime front. The ongoing conflict has already disrupted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, putting additional strain on energy markets and supply chains.
Bab al-Mandeb is crucial, as it accounts for about 12% of the world’s seaborne oil trade, acting as an essential route for cargo between Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal.
Since previous Houthi attacks have forced shipping companies to reroute around Africa, traffic through Bab al-Mandeb is already significantly below normal. Daily shipping activity has reportedly decreased to roughly half of what it typically is, illustrating the current strain on these shipping lanes.
It’s interesting to consider how even the mere threat of an attack might deter carriers from using this route. Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan pointed out that when risks loom large, the choice is often to simply avoid the route altogether.
Limited attacks or threats could potentially lead to higher insurance costs or cause major airlines to reroute even more extensively, effectively reducing traffic without necessitating a formal blockade.
The U.S. had previously launched a significant operation called Operation Rough Riders in 2025 to counter Houthi aggressions against shipping in the Red Sea. This operation followed a pattern of attacks against commercial vessels related to Israel’s actions in Gaza.
Despite these military efforts, the threat hasn’t been completely eradicated. Shipping companies are still wary, citing ongoing security concerns.
While both U.S. officials and experts believe the Houthis may not be capable of completely shutting down Bab al-Mandeb, they can still launch attacks on ships using missiles and drones, tactics that have historically disrupted navigation in the Red Sea.
The Houthis have developed a variety of military hardware under Iranian guidance, including ballistic and cruise missiles along with drones. Although they have gained some capacity to produce these weapons locally, analysts indicate that their supply chains may currently be hindered by the broader conflict.
Middle East analyst Greg Roman suggested that while the Houthis can indeed disrupt maritime traffic, a wider campaign could trigger a substantial international response from the likes of the United States, Israel, and allied Gulf states.
Up to this point, the Houthis have largely refrained from escalating attacks on maritime targets, choosing instead a more measured approach, likely due to both strategic considerations and pressure from regional powers.
As tensions remain high, many officials and analysts are concerned about the possibility of the Houthis being utilized by Iran to put additional pressure in the region. This could lead to an escalation of maritime attacks, heightening the complexity of the current situation.
Overall, there are widespread concerns that the conflict may evolve into a multi-faceted crisis, challenging the ability of the U.S. and its allies to safeguard essential global trade routes. Moreover, any moves by Iran or its affiliates to influence navigation through these crucial waterways could unsettle established norms of free passage, raising questions about how similar tactics might affect other global chokepoints.
