fantasy baseball Managers are very predictable during this time.
Open a discussion about veteran draft picks like Nick Castellanos or Teoscar Hernandez and you’ll get ADP data and a thesis on why you should be wary of talent fading with age.
But when you ask him about reaching out to newcomers like Wyatt Langford and Jackson Merrill, his eyes glaze over like they jingle keys in front of a baby. Kool-Aid smiles are often accentuated by small streams of drool.
Rookies are all the rage, and the outfield positions are filled with rookies. The question is, how far do we have to go to get them?
Langford and Merrill are already mainstays for fantasy managers, as is Brewers rookie center fielder Jackson Choriot. All three were scheduled to participate in the opening game, and there was constant excitement throughout the spring.
It’s hard to argue with them. Langford led all of MLB this spring with a 1.242 OPS. Merrill just started in center field for the Padres in the Seoul Series, and Cholio has a batting average of .280 and an OBP of .333 through the spring of 2015. game. We expect all three to find success at the major league level, but the question you always have to ask yourself on draft day is whether they’re worth the juice.
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The biggest problem we have with rookie hype is how far people will get to draft that player. There’s no doubting Langford’s talent, but his ADP has increased by more than 50 spots in the past three weeks and he’s currently a top-100 pick in the draft. If he plays at his ceiling, like Corbin Carroll did last year, you’ll get a high return value, but if he follows the same path as many other MLB rookies over the years, The price would be too high.
Chourio is similarly moving up the ADP ranks with news of a first-round signing. After hitting 22 home runs and stealing 44 bases in 2023, expectations are high for him, and while he’s still about 20 points behind Langford in picks, he’s at risk of being overpaid as well. The rookie performs well during the spring, but once the regular season begins he can be underwhelming.
Merrill’s ADP is the most reasonable of the three, coming in as a 25th round pick in a 12-team league. Still, his recent 2 hits in 5 at-bats with a double and 2 RBIs in Seoul are still fresh in everyone’s memory, so we need to be careful in the final stages of the draft. We could see overdrafts as early as this weekend.
It’s okay to get excited about this season’s rookie outfielders, but try to be smart during the draft. Getting there in one round or two is another thing, but you never want to overcommit. And even if he misses out on these three in the draft, don’t overpay for them in a trade. Be smart and add Colton his Cowser and James his Wood cheaply on waivers. Both should come up sooner or later. And each one will put the same Kool-Aid smile on your face.
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