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It's been less than a week since Donald Trump was declared the winner of the 2024 presidential election, but investors have high hopes for the president-elect's second term in the White House. On Monday, the three major stock indexes and the price of Bitcoin all hit record highs, and the dollar soared.
Some experts predict that President Trump's second term will bring an economic boom to the United States, while others warn that the president's policies will have mixed effects depending on industry.
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Eric Stein, chief investor at Voya Investment Management, a major asset management firm, said there will be winners and losers as a result of Trump's policies.
tax
Mr. Stein argues that a permanent extension of President Trump's 2017 tax cuts and the president-elect's proposed corporate tax rate cuts will boost growth (and inflation) and benefit stocks, while pushing up long-term yields and weighing on bonds. He said it was highly likely.
- winner: us manufacturer
- loser: Corporate bonds, overseas subsidiaries
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customs duty
Stein said that while the threat of across-the-board 10% to 20% tariffs may be a negotiating ploy to expand U.S. access to overseas markets, higher tariffs on China are likely, and Congress could strip most-favored-nation status. It said this could lead to changes in supply chains and increased inflationary pressures. Boya estimates that increased tariffs and immigration controls could reduce GDP by 0.5% in 2025. ”
“Tariffs are important to watch and I agree with President Trump that [potential returning trade chief Robert] Mr. Lighthizer will impose tariffs, but since tariffs are primarily a negotiating tool, we don't expect most of them to last very long, at least,” Stein told FOX Business. as a negotiation tactic. ”
- winner: US manufacturer, India, Mexico
- loser: Retailers, Home Appliances, Electronics, Packaged Goods, Multinational Corporations
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deregulation
Expanding administrative power over enforcement could lead to a wave of deregulation, lowering compliance costs and paving the way for strategic mergers and acquisitions, boosting economic growth, corporate profits, and small business profits. argues Stein. On the downside, he said, inflation risks could rise further.
Stein told FOX Business about the overall impact of President Trump: “I think the biggest impact will be the push for deregulation, which will be very positive in liberating the animal spirits and promoting economic growth. Deaf,” he said.
- winner: banking, energy, technology, industry, consumer, products
- loser: renewable energy
energy
Stein said accelerating oil and gas lease sales and the incoming Trump administration's immediate approval of drilling permits could boost sentiment in the short term, but would have little impact on earnings over the next four years.
“Despite President Trump's dismissal of renewable energy, clean energy remains firmly entrenched with strong state support and clear economic advantages over thermal power,” he said. Ta.
- winner: oil and gas, coal
- loser: Renewable energy, EV
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Stein said that while there may be some fluctuations in inflation under the Trump administration, it is likely to remain close to current levels, i.e. slightly above 2%, but down from 9% a few years ago. I think it will drop significantly. He argues that President Trump's supply-side deregulation is deflationary and that tariffs are inflationary, but should help reduce inflation.
Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk and former U.S. President Donald Trump step down before an election event at the Butler Farm Show in Butler, Pennsylvania, U.S., Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. (Justin Merriman/Bloomberg via Getty Images/Getty Images)
Asked about the potential impact if President Trump were to implement a government spending reduction commission led by Elon Musk, Stein said, “This could potentially be transformative.”
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“However, it may be difficult to implement everything proposed, given the various circumstances associated with a large government like ours, complicated by external factors such as economics and world politics,” he added. Ta.
