On Tuesday, voters in New Jersey will head to the polls to choose candidates for the upcoming gubernatorial election in November. This election has drawn attention as it could act as an early assessment of President Donald Trump’s standing ahead of his potential second term.
Currently, Democratic Governor Phil Murphy can’t run again due to term limits, and the Republicans are eager to take back the governor’s office. Some analysts note a 10-point shift for the GOP compared to the last presidential race in 2020. Jack Ciattarelli, who was the Republican candidate in 2021, is a strong contender to secure the nomination again. The primary is quite competitive on the Democratic side as well.
A recent nonpartisan report highlighted that multiple New Jersey governor races are leaning Democratic, but the outcome will likely reflect voters’ sentiments about the current administration. If Ciattarelli were to win both the primary and the general election, it could be interpreted as a significant win for Trump, marking a Republican takeover of the governor’s mansion for the first time in eight years.
This marks Ciattarelli’s third attempt to become governor. After a short run in the 2017 Republican primary, he won the GOP nomination in 2021, ultimately losing by a narrow margin of three points. That result was tighter than many had anticipated.
For Ciattarelli to secure a spot in the general election, he must first overcome four rivals in the GOP primary. Among them are former radio host Bill Spadea, state Senator John Bramnick, former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac, and Justin Barbera. Interestingly, both Spadea and Kranjac are positioning themselves as Trump allies, despite the president’s backing of Ciattarelli. Meanwhile, Bramnick stands out as a more moderate, even anti-Trump contender.
A May opinion poll from Emerson College indicated Ciattarelli leading significantly with 44% support, followed by Spadea at 18%. Bramnick had 8%, while both Barbera and Kranjac were well behind at 2% each. About 23% of voters were undecided.
Kranjac, emphasizing his fiscal conservatism, expressed his anticipation of a primary win, highlighting his stance on late abortions as a key issue against Democrats. He believes this could help shift the momentum in New Jersey.
On the Democratic side, Emerson’s May polling placed Morris County’s Mayor Cheryl at the forefront with 28% support, while notable figures like Newark Mayor Ras Baraka and Josh Gottheimer garnered 11% each. Teacher’s Union President Sean Spiller followed with 10%, but 24% of respondents remained undecided.
Both Baraka and Fulop, mayors of the largest cities in New Jersey, align more with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Baraka has been particularly vocal about civil rights issues and recently made headlines due to an arrest at an ICE protest, which he labeled a politically motivated attack.
Baraka stated that his campaign is about engaging directly with the people, emphasizing the need for genuine leadership without ties to political power players. Fulop echoed this sentiment, saying they are focused on grassroots engagement and listening to the concerns of everyday voters.
Historically, Trump struggled in New Jersey during the last presidential election, losing by nearly 6%. It’s been two decades since Trump won the state by double digits, with his 2020 defeat showing a significant drop of about 16 points.
As New Jersey operates closed primaries, only registered party members can vote in their respective elections. This election day is set for Tuesday.
New Jersey’s gubernatorial races are significant, particularly as it shares this timing with Virginia. The outcomes of past elections have often reflected broader national sentiments, showing reactions to previous administrations.
None of the campaigns mentioned responded immediately to requests for comments.
