Prices rose again in February, casting further doubt on previous predictions that inflation would continue to fall in 2024.
of personal consumption expenditure The PCE price index rose 2.5% in the 12 months through February, outpacing the 12-month inflation rate of 2.4% recorded in the previous month, the Commerce Department said Friday. This is the first 12-month rise in inflation since September.
Core PCE prices, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.8%.
The full-year numbers were in line with Wall Street economists’ expectations.
Compared to the previous month, the PCE index rose by 0.3%. This was slightly below the consensus estimate of 0.4%. Core PCE also rose 0.3%, in line with median expectations.
Unexpectedly, last month’s figures were revised upwards, showing that inflation was stronger at the start of the year than previously thought. The overall 12-month PCE index is now expected to have risen 2.5% through January, up from an initial forecast of 2.4%. The rate of increase from December to January has been revised to 0.4% from 0.3%.
As a result of the revision, the 12-month core value for January rose from 2.8% to 2.9%, and the 1-month core value rose from 0.4% to 0.5%.
The upward trend reported in the PCE index reflects the results of previous Consumer Price Reports and Producer Price Reports, which previously showed more pronounced inflationary pressures. Data from these reports is fed into his PCE index, allowing economists to forecast his PCE numbers, which will be released in the coming weeks.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at today’s PCE numbers in a press conference last week.
