Severe thunderstorms are threatening nine states in the Southern Plains, particularly in Arkansas and Oklahoma, where conditions could lead to multiple tornadoes on Tuesday afternoon.
According to the NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC), the thunderstorms may develop into significant supercells in northeastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, producing powerful tornadoes rated EF-2 and above.
The SPC has labeled the risk of severe thunderstorms in this area as Level 3 out of a total of five, impacting cities like Fort Smith and Little Rock in Arkansas.
Large southern regions, including major metropolitan areas in North Texas and the Dallas-Fort Worth area, face additional threats such as large hail and strong winds starting Tuesday afternoon and continuing overnight.
This event seems typical for early autumn, often linked to escalating severe weather patterns in the Central U.S. observed since Sunday.
The increased risk on Tuesday stems from a low-pressure system moving beneath a dip in the jetstream at lower atmospheric levels.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along cold fronts that stretch across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas by Tuesday afternoon, as noted by the Fox Forecast Center.
The NOAA’s SPC has assessed a Level 2 risk for parts of North Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and Arkansas.
In Dallas, which sits at the southwest edge of the threat zone, the Level 1 risk extends into areas, with similar conditions affecting Nashville, Tennessee.
Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas are poised to experience the highest tornado risks on Tuesday, per the SPC’s analysis.
Additionally, about 2.1 million people may face risks from hail larger than two inches in diameter, an area covering western Oklahoma, including Tulsa, and western Arkansas, such as Fayetteville and Fort Smith.
Thunderstorms could persist into the night and into Wednesday.
With repeated storm activity, there’s a significant chance of flash flooding. The region from Oklahoma to East Tennessee may see total rainfall between 3 to 5 inches, with localized areas possibly receiving 5 to 8 inches.
The Flood Clock indicates that over 5 million individuals are under potential flood threat by Wednesday, affecting Oklahoma, southwestern Missouri, northwest Arkansas, and parts of eastern Kansas.
