The leaders of Iraq’s most influential Iran-affiliated militia, notably the notorious Kataib Hezbollah (KH), are contemplating disarmament, as reported by Reuters on Monday, prompted by the threat of airstrikes from President Donald Trump.
Reuters conducted anonymous interviews with “six local commanders” from Iraq’s predominantly Shia militia. The militia reacted to Israel’s offensive against Hamas on October 7, 2023, portraying itself as part of the loosely organized “Iraqi Islamic Resistance” group in solidarity with terrorist factions backed by Iran. The “Iraqi Islamic Resistance” executed various assaults in 2024 targeting American installations in Iraq in support of Hamas. KH, viewed as the most dominant entity in the coalition, originally declared its intention to engage in combat with American forces in the region but later retreated in late January 2024, labeling it “not embarrassing” for the Iraqi government.
These factions are affiliated with a more structured alliance known as the Popular Mobilising Forces (PMF), where Iraqi military elements are officially incorporated into Iraq despite being classified as an anti-American militant group.
According to a Reuters article, the commander indicated that the potential for the Trump administration to target militia leaders through airstrikes or other military actions has influenced the thought of full disarmament. Iraqi politicians, including Izzat Al-Shahbndar, confirmed the account, stating that negotiations between Baghdad and the jihadist militia regarding formal disarmament and the integration of Iraqi forces have progressed substantially.
Iran is reportedly participating in the process of transforming these militias into potentially more legitimate entities. Esmail Kaani, the leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) QUDS force, reportedly visited Iraq in March, urging PMF militants to maintain “discipline” and avoid unnecessary military confrontations with the United States. The QUDS force represents Iran’s external terrorist branch and is tasked with coordinating with numerous jihadist proxies globally while bolstering Tehran’s interests regarding terrorist activity against foreign adversaries.
President Trump had ordered the assassination of Qaani’s predecessor Qassem Soleimani in a Baghdad airstrike in January 2020, along with KH founder Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. The airstrikes also took out Muhandi and left behind a jihadist leader.
With Trump back in the presidency, the potential for similar airstrike actions against the PMF and “Iraqi Islamic Resistance” has notably influenced the decision to push for military disarmament. This is evident.
“Trump is prepared to escalate war with us. We are aware of this, and we seek to avoid such a dire scenario,” one anonymous KH commander told the outlet.
“The move to alleviate tensions comes after repeated warnings conveyed directly by US officials to the Iraqi government, which sources, including six local commanders from four major militias, confirmed,” Reuters reported. “Sources added that the US could target the group in airstrikes unless authorities dissolve the militia based in Baghdad.”
Iraqi politician Shabundar commended the jihadist group for “not acting obstinately” and trying to work in harmony with the Iraqi government, which theoretically necessitates acceptance of Prime Minister Mohamed Shea al-Sudani as the commander. He proposed that their future could be recognized as a legitimate political party and might also involve some influence in the Iraqi government or within its military operations. This arrangement resembles negotiations in neighboring Syria, where the jihadist terrorist group Hayat Taharir Al-Sham (HTS) succeeded in expelling longtime dictator Bashar Assad in December. In March, the head of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led US-backed militia, agreed to integrate into the newly formed Syrian army, thus recognizing the current president, Ahmed Arshara, as the commander.
Beyond verbal commitments from the PMF commander, Reuters reported that they are making strides to dissolve their existing business activities and have begun to diminish their public presence in Iraq.
“Some factions have already largely evacuated their bases and have cut down their visibility in major cities, including Mosul and Amber, since mid-January, due to fears of being targeted by air strikes,” an official reported.
The Iranian government seems concerned about a potential US attack on its affiliated groups but appears to endorse the reorganization. Local media outlet Shafuk News reported that after Kaani’s visit to Baghdad in late March, he urged the militia not to “escalate” tensions, to which the militia agreed to acknowledge the authority of the Iraqi government.
“According to the arrangement, all PMF units and brigades, including previously independent factions, will operate as military commanders under the direct order of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohamed Shea al-Sudani,” Shafak reported, citing a confidential source.
For months, Sudani has urged the United States to withdraw from Iraq, asserting that the disintegration of the Islamic State’s “caliphate” and the reduced presence of Sunni terrorists made this feasible, although he refrained from mentioning Shia terrorists.
“Today, Iraq in 2024 is not what it was in 2014,” Sudani stated in September. “We have triumphed over Dash [ISIS]. Our sacrifices and the standing of the Iraqi populace are upheld by all its components and factions, along with the international community and our allies.”
“We understand that the justification has ended. The coalition of 86 nations is no longer needed. We have transitioned from a state of war to stability. Dash is not a danger to our nation,” he informed Bloomberg News.
