Iran and its proxies have vowed to punish Israel over the attempted assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, bringing the two countries one step closer to all-out war in the Middle East.
Israel, which has not authorized any attacks on Iran, says one of its main objectives in the war with Hamas is to kill Hamas’ top leaders, including Haniyeh.
But Haniyeh’s death inside Iran, just over three months after Iran fired hundreds of missiles and drones directly at Israel in an unprecedented attack, marks a major escalation in already festering conflicts across the Middle East.
It also came just a day after Israel killed the top military leader of the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group in Beirut, the Lebanese capital, where war has been threatening for months.
Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the risk of a regional war was growing, and he speculated that it could begin with a larger clash between Israel and Hezbollah.
“It will lead to Iranian involvement because Iran cannot stand by and watch. [Hezbollah] “Israel will devastate us,” he said of a broader war. “I don’t think we’ll get to that point. The war will probably move toward a series of sporadic confrontations that could escalate quite a bit.”
“By targeting these two top leaders, the Israeli government has demonstrated that it is willing to risk all-out war,” said Asher Kaufman, a professor of history and peace studies at the University of Notre Dame.
“We are certainly closer to a downward spiral today than we were yesterday,” Kaufman said in an email. “All parties, including Israel, appear uninterested in all-out war, yet at the same time continue to incline toward that possibility. The Middle East is clearly at a time of extreme fragility and uncertainty about the future.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei promised “severe punishment” for the murder of Haniyeh and his bodyguard at their home on Wednesday, while they were in Tehran to attend the inauguration of the new president.
“Following this terrible and tragic incident that took place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge,” Khamenei said. I said it with X.
Khamenei ordered forces to return fire late on Wednesday. According to the New York Times:.
Other Iran-backed groups, including Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, were quick to condemn Israel for Haniyeh’s killing and vowed to retaliate for the attack.
The Haniya attack demonstrated the vast capabilities of Israeli intelligence and exposed Tehran’s weaknesses in its national defense, forcing Iran to respond forcefully.
But experts say Tehran likely does not have the resources or appetite to launch another major attack on Israel like the one in April, which came after an Israeli attack near the Iranian embassy in Syria that killed several members of Tehran’s paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Instead, Iran may strike back through its proxies, with the most likely attack coming from Lebanon, where Hezbollah has been firing artillery shells and rockets at Israel for nearly 10 months in operations linked to Israel’s war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Hezbollah may already be considering a response following the death of Fouad Shukr, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s right-hand man and key military adviser, in an Israeli attack in Beirut on Tuesday. The Israeli attack came in retaliation for a Hezbollah rocket attack on an Israeli soccer stadium that killed 12 children and young people.
Still, Iran may not want to risk its most prominent proxy, Hezbollah, in a larger war with Israel, especially since Tehran seeks to avoid a larger war in order to maintain its proxies as a bulwark against Israel. Other possibilities for Iranian retaliation include one-off attacks or targeted assassinations of Israeli government officials.
Gene Moran, a national security expert and former U.S. Navy destroyer captain, said he expects Iran to strike back directly, and that the outcome could be very different from the April attack, when Israeli and allied forces completely repelled an onslaught of Iranian drones and rockets.
“This is an issue of Tehran’s sovereignty,” said Moran, now an adjunct professor at Florida State University. “My first thought when I saw it was, [Israel] The biggest problem with the Russian president attacking Tehran is that it sends the ultimate ‘I can always sit with my feet on your coffee table’ kind of message, which is never going to be well received.”
The United States and Israel are likely preparing for a potential response by moving assets and troops across the region and stepping up intelligence gathering. In the event of a major attack on Israel, the United States is expected to assist its allies in the defense. During Iran’s attack in April, U.S. forces intervened in Israel’s defense along with regional Arab countries.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters on Wednesday that the United States would “certainly support” Israel if it were attacked.
“You saw us do that in April, and I think we’ll do it again,” Austin said, “but we don’t want to see that happen.”
Israel’s war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip has decimated the group, which was responsible for deadly attacks in southern Israel on October 7 that left some 1,200 people dead. Hamas also took about 250 hostages.
Health officials say the war, which does not distinguish between combatants and non-combatants, has seen Hamas lose thousands of fighters and killed more than 39,000 people in the Gaza Strip.
Israel has targeted dozens of Hamas leaders during the war and may have killed top military commander Mohammed Deif in June, though his death has not been confirmed. Hamas’ top leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, remains at large.
Haniyeh’s killing is the biggest blow yet to Hamas, which has lost power in Gaza and is unlikely to be able to fight back with any meaningful force.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared to boast victory in a video address on Wednesday, saying significant gains had been made in the war despite pressure to end it.
“We have been able to achieve all this in the past few months because we did not surrender and took very brave decisions despite extremely strong pressure from both within and outside the country,” he said.
Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official, said Israel was “upping the stakes” by targeting Haniyeh on Iranian territory.
“They are basically saying to Iran that we are willing, able and ready to respond to any kind of attack. [conflict] “But now we are in charge, we are in control,” he said of Israel’s mindset. “We are the ones shuffling the cards in the game.”
Haniya’s death and the response by Iran and its proxies
Negotiations are underway towards a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the release of the remaining 116 hostages still being held there, around 44 of whom are believed to be dead.
The United States has denied being involved in the attack on Haniya but has repeatedly called for a ceasefire and a hostage release agreement after the attacks in Beirut and Tehran.
White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Wednesday that Israeli attacks on Lebanon and Iran were complicating the negotiations.
“These reports over the last 24, 48 hours have done absolutely nothing to bring the temperatures down,” Kirby said. “They certainly don’t make the task of achieving this outcome any easier.”
Sina Azodi, a visiting scholar and lecturer in international affairs at George Washington University, said these developments do not necessarily “devastate” the prospects of a ceasefire agreement.
“But it would seriously jeopardize the possibility of a ceasefire agreement,” he said, “because it would tie the hands of those who would want to make any concessions to Israel at a time when Israel has just assassinated a political leader.”
