Iran Feels Threatened by Somaliland’s Growing Ties with the West

Iran appears to be significantly concerned about the emerging influence of Somaliland, a small breakaway region in Africa. The U.S., Israel, and other Western nations may take advantage of its strategic deep-water ports and airbases, further complicating Iran’s regional ambitions.

This potential shift could undermine Iran’s efforts to deploy its proxy, the Yemeni Houthis, who have been known to target ships in the Red Sea. Recently, reports have indicated that Iran is pressuring the Houthis to renew these assaults, especially in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a vital shipping channel for oil from the Middle East to Asia.

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Middle East expert Lisa Daftari mentioned that the Iranian regime is alarmed by Somaliland’s emergence as a possibly pro-Western, pro-Israel presence near the Bab el-Mandeb. This position could diminish Tehran’s sway over shipping routes in the Red Sea and its influence over Israel.

Daftari pointed out that the Iranian-backed Houthis have made explicit threats to target Israeli or Western forces in Somaliland. They have also warned of a potential blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb if tensions between the U.S. and Israel escalate.

The White House has commented that Iranian proxies like the Houthis are becoming less effective. When asked about the prospect of a more permanent U.S. relationship with Somaliland, Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly noted that Operation Epic Fury’s goals have largely been met, which includes diminishing the threat from Iranian proxies.

Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, suggested that Somaliland’s recent recognition of Israel has upset Iran. As the first country to do so, Israel’s stance draws Iran’s ire, especially amid its general antipathy toward U.S. involvement in the region. Fitton-Brown stressed that Somaliland could be critical in combating the Houthi threat.

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Fitton-Brown expressed concern over the U.S. military’s growing challenges in Djibouti, where China has expanded its military foothold. He mentioned that Djibouti’s reliability as an ally is under scrutiny, suggesting that Somaliland’s time may finally be coming.

Somaliland’s foreign minister, Abdirahman Dahir Adam, has reiterated the region’s offer to provide the U.S. with access to its coasts, emphasizing the importance of their strategic location amid increased threats in the region.

Interestingly, Somaliland is also positioning itself as a storage location for Tomahawk missiles, which Adam argues is an innovative measure for enhancing security cooperation.

However, there are hurdles to overcome. Retired Major General Kenneth P. Ekman warned that engaging directly with Somaliland creates policy dilemmas, particularly instead of collaborating through the Federal Government of Somalia. He indicated that while U.S. interests are served in Djibouti, gaining access to the port at Berbera in Somaliland could offer valuable redundancy.

Senator Ted Cruz has been a vocal advocate for greater U.S. recognition of Somaliland, arguing that its location and cooperative stance make it a crucial counterterrorism ally. He believes Somaliland’s potential should be leveraged, not shunned.

While the U.S. already utilizes Somaliland for counterterrorism efforts, it maintains a formal alignment with Somalia, complicating the situation given Somaliland’s separation in 1991. Recently, officials indicated that U.S. military delegations have been visiting Somaliland regularly to assess port facilities.

Experts note that although the U.S. does not have a permanent base in Somaliland, it collaborates closely with its security forces. There have even been operations carried out in partnership that targeted key figures in extremist groups.

Ultimately, the U.S. seems to be moving cautiously, maintaining its strategic partnership with Somalia even while fostering ties with Somaliland. As Daftari observed, Somaliland presents a unique alternative on the African coast, complete with necessary infrastructure that could significantly impact the regional dynamics involving Iran and the Houthis.