Windward AI Report on Iranian Oil Theft

Maritime intelligence firm Windward AI published a report on Wednesday, claiming that Iran has managed to steal as much as $800 million worth of crude oil. They did this by disguising their tankers as Iraqi vessels to circumvent the U.S. Navy blockade.

According to Windward AI, “Deceptive shipping practices have escalated, with 10 U.S.-licensed tankers trading with Iran actively disguising their locations as if they were anchored off the coast of Basra, Iraq.” This manipulation, they argue, highlights long-standing tactics used to evade detection by authorities.

The report also pointed out that these tankers are utilizing technology to alter their Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals. They transmit incorrect navigation data, suggesting their destinations are in Iraq, often paired with false ownership claims.

While these vessels appear to be engaged in compliant trade, they are actually diverting to Iranian ports to load sanctioned crude oil. AIS data shows these vessels arriving in Iraq, only to leave with their cargo under misleading pretenses.

The AIS, or Automatic Identification System, is essential for maritime navigation, providing real-time maps that can significantly enhance safety at sea. Unfortunately, it’s not particularly challenging to deceive an AIS system. Crew members can manually adjust the identification and location data sent by their ships. In some cases, several vessels have been known to broadcast false AIS data simultaneously, creating false legitimacy.

Despite the challenges associated with these electronic deceptions, Windward AI identified ten vessels using AIS spoofing and fraudulent registrations to avoid blockades. Two of the identified vessels are tankers named Paola and Adena, which were linked to Iranian oil smuggling operations recognized by the U.S. Treasury Department.

Other ships are operating under false flags from places like Curaçao, Hong Kong, Malawi, Guyana, and Comoros. Windward AI stated all ten vessels exhibited clear signs of spoofing, including unusual position patterns and inconsistent AIS tracks. Some ships even pretended to have loaded oil at Iraqi ports favored by Iranian smugglers.

Windward AI’s report did not specify how effective these electronic tricks have been. It noted that a considerable group of “Iranian trading vessels” seems to be stuck west of Hormuz, under blockade pressure, indicating that at least some vessels from Iran’s shadow fleet might have managed to slip through.

“Risks are no longer concentrated in the strait itself,” the report added. With enforcement intensifying, vessel behavior is changing, leading to greater reliance on concealment and impersonation in surrounding areas such as Chabahar and Bandar Abbas.

Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), stated that the blockade has reached a significant milestone, having diverted the 42nd commercial vessel attempting to breach it. He remarked, “This is a reflection of the outstanding work America’s sons and daughters in uniform are doing to disrupt maritime commerce to and from Iranian ports.”

Cooper also mentioned that currently, 41 tankers loaded with 69 million barrels of oil cannot be sold to Iran—an amount exceeding $6 billion—with no economic gain for Iranian leadership. He affirmed that the blockade remains highly effective, and the U.S. military is fully committed to its enforcement.