Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Issue Threats Over US Blockade
On Wednesday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) signaled that they might halt oil supplies from the Middle East to the rest of the world. This announcement came as a direct response to the US reimposing a blockade on Iranian ports.
“Our enemies should recognize that pirates have obstructed a key route for oil and gas exports from the Indian Ocean, which impacts the economic interests of America’s rivals,” the IRGC stated. They further warned of potential shutdowns of other routes that serve the US and its allies. This message was shared through Iran’s state broadcaster.
The IRGC’s comments suggest a reference to threats in the Red Sea. Recently, an oil tanker was reportedly forced to navigate a longer path around Africa due to disruptions caused by Houthi groups during the Gaza conflict, which not only raised shipping costs but also alerted many to the precarious situation in that region.
Moreover, Houthi militants, as they strive to regain control over Yemen and escalate tensions with Saudi Arabia, have indicated the possibility of reopening attacks in the Red Sea or even obstructing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical juncture linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.
A senior Houthi official, Mohammed al-Falah, stated their intention to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait soon as part of a broader strategy to impose pressure on Saudi Arabia. He warned that if conditions worsen, both the Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz could be closed, leading to a steep rise in oil prices, potentially hitting $200 per barrel. Current prices hover between $80 and $85.
Saudi Arabia primarily relies on the Red Sea for its oil exports, a situation that has intensified following Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, the Red Sea sees significant cargo and container ship traffic.
Abdulaziz Sager from the Saudi Arabian Gulf Research Center, noted that Iran’s hesitation in leveraging the Houthi threat to disrupt Red Sea shipping is partly because many Gulf nations might conclude that putting up with Iranian actions is no longer viable.
“Whether Iran is perceived as victorious or defeated carries implications for the region, with many Gulf countries possibly willing to shoulder the repercussions if it fosters a more stable security climate,” Sager remarked. This reflects why Gulf states have been reluctant to act against Iranian missile and drone offenses and why they see closing off Bab el-Mandeb as a last option.
On Tuesday, the United Nations Security Council decided to extend maritime observation in the Red Sea by an additional six months, responding to rising Houthi threats to shipping. During that same session, the US accused Iran, alongside some Chinese companies, of breaching UN resolutions by supplying the Houthis with potentially military-use dual-purpose equipment. The Chinese delegation responded, dismissing the allegations as unfounded.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that the naval blockade against Iran resumed on Tuesday, during which the US Navy redirected two commercial ships overnight in enforcement efforts.
CENTCOM affirmed, “The U.S. military remains alert and prepared to ensure compliance.” Additionally, the US executed a series of airstrikes against Iranian military positions late Tuesday, including strikes on Greater Tunbu Island, which Iran has controlled since 1971. The UAE asserts this island is under illegal occupation and demands its return.
Reportedly, Greater Tunbu Island serves as a storage site for munitions and weapons, housing missiles and drones that have the potential to threaten international vessels. CENTCOM mentioned that an Iranian missile launch facility on the island was successfully targeted in a focused strike. Notably, this island was also part of a prior operation aimed at neutralizing Iranian threats.
