Political Uncertainty Follows Israeli Election

Israel’s parliamentary election wrapped up in a state of confusion Tuesday night. Initial exit polls indicated that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, managed to secure a governing majority, even as Arab parties saw a notable increase in support.

The exit polls, released post the 10:00 p.m. local time closure—set against the backdrop of the highest voter turnout in over 25 years—showed Netanyahu’s Likud party slightly leading Eisenkot’s Yashar. However, neither party attained the 61 seats needed for a majority within the 120-member Knesset.

Three main broadcasters—Kan 11, Channel 12, and Channel 13—reported that Netanyahu’s coalition won around 50 seats, while Eisenkot’s camp garnered 52 or 53 seats, along with an additional 17 or 18 for predominantly Arab parties.

The Channel 12 exit poll projected Likud at 24 seats, Yashar at 22, giving Netanyahu’s coalition a total of 50 while the opposition secured 52, and Arab parties gained 18. Meanwhile, Kan 11 reported Likud at 25 seats to Yashar’s 21, and Channel 13 indicated 25 to 23, respectively, with Netanyahu’s group still pegged at roughly 50 seats, Eisenkot’s at 53, and Arab parties at 17.

Other broadcasters presented slightly more optimistic forecasts for Netanyahu; however, none indicated a clear majority for his coalition.

In the i24NEWS exit poll, opposition numbers painted a different picture, forecasting Netanyahu’s group at 55 seats against Eisenkot’s 49, while suggesting 16 seats went to Arab parties, with Likud claiming 27 and Yashar 20. Channel 14 stood out with a projection of 60 seats for Netanyahu, just shy of a majority, against 43 for Eisenkot’s camp and 17 for Arab representatives. This survey projected Likud at 30 seats compared to Yashar’s 19.

The elections were notable for their extraordinary voter turnout, particularly within several Arab-majority communities, with Netanyahu making urgent calls to his supporters to mobilize. He warned, “If we don’t go vote now, we will find ourselves with a government of Arab parties.”

Eisenkot, in turn, accused Netanyahu of resorting to familiar campaign tactics and asserted that accusations of vote theft were unfounded.

Voter turnout reached a reported 77.7 percent, marking the highest level since 1999, attributed to a significant turnout across the country, especially among Arab communities. This surge in Arab party representation could significantly influence the next Knesset, with projections estimating 16 to 18 seats for the Joint List and Ra’am.

At Yashar’s headquarters in Tel Aviv, supporters cheered the early projections highlighting their bloc’s lead over Netanyahu’s allies, chanting, “Bibi, go home.” However, the numerical advantage of the opposition, combined with Arab support, doesn’t guarantee a governing majority.

Some opposition leaders express hesitance towards forming a coalition reliant on Arab parties, complicating Eisenkot’s coalition-building efforts. Conversely, Netanyahu would need additional support even with the more favorable projections from Channel 14.

The exit polls suggested the possibility that several smaller parties might not clear the Knesset’s electoral threshold. Examples include former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael party, aligning with Netanyahu’s camp, and others likely falling below the 3.25 percent threshold.

The unclear projections mean both candidates could lay claim to the mandate for forming the next government. Netanyahu might highlight Likud’s status as the largest individual party, while Eisenkot could argue for the broader parliamentary presence of his coalition.

President Isaac Herzog is expected to consult with the elected factions to gauge who stands the best chance of forming a government. Depending on coalition negotiations, various scenarios could unfold, including potential agreements among rivals, a broader unity government, or even yet another election if stalemates arise.

This election was Israel’s first parliamentary event since Hamas’s terrorist attack on October 7, 2023, and it came after years of regional turmoil that have reshaped the political climate.

Importantly, the figures from the exit polls are preliminary and do not reflect actual counted results, as more than 650,000 special ballots are pending verification and counting in the ensuing days. These ballots could significantly alter final seat distributions and ensure smaller parties either cross the threshold or fail to do so.

With neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot expected to hold a commanding majority, the future of Israel’s next government remains uncertain as the nation anticipates official results and subsequent coalition discussions.