While discussions between Washington and Tel Aviv focus on damage assessments from conflict, another perspective is worth considering. Right now, in Tehran, an Iranian engineer is driving rideshare vehicles just to make ends meet. He’s not alone; countless others are in the same boat, illustrating a significant economic failure—one that the regime has created.
This situation hasn’t garnered much attention. The overall Iranian economy, based on purchasing power parity, is around $1.8 trillion, serving 85.8 million people. That breaks down to roughly $21,000 per person. Yet, the reality is that many Iranians, in fact, are even worse off now than they were during the 1979 revolution. If Iran had maintained its economic growth prior to the revolution, it could have been considerably wealthier today.
The human toll of this economy shows up in employment statistics. About four in ten working-age Iranians are employed. For women, that figure drops to about one in eight. Educated individuals often take time off when they can, which is likely why this engineer opts for rideshare driving instead of launching his own business.
Imagine what this talent pool could accomplish if they had access to genuine free markets and robust institutions. In the U.S., per capita output hovers around $85,000, which isn’t a fair comparison for Iran. A more suitable benchmark would be its regional neighbors.
Back in 2000, Iran’s economy surpassed that of the UAE. Today, the UAE has overtaken Iran significantly. The disparity isn’t solely due to oil; it’s more about economic freedom and sound institutions. For instance, South Korea, which has no oil, produces nearly three times more per capita than Iran. This gap is indicative of nearly half a century of economic policies prioritizing regime stability over public prosperity.
The Heritage Foundation recently published the 2026 Economic Freedom Index, placing Iran in the lowest category for economic freedom, a situation that has only declined since 2019. Meanwhile, the IMF and World Bank share similar assessments. The IMF forecasts a mere 0.6% GDP growth for Iran in 2025, alongside an alarming inflation rate of 43%. While sanctions exacerbate the situation, the underlying issues have existed long before and will persist even if sanctions are lifted.
State interventions under a clerical regime undermine essential economic freedoms, leading to systemic corruption. The government primarily relies on oil revenues, directing production while stifling the private sector, resulting in a stagnant labor market and a currency that feels fictional.
The failures stretch across the board—law enforcement, regulatory freedom, and market openness. Interestingly, Iran does excel in one aspect: taxation and spending. The regime prefers to extract wealth directly from oil rather than taxing its citizens, which is like a landlord not charging rent because their furniture has already been stolen.
So, what does a successful future look like for everyday Iranians? It’s not about a specific government or flag; it’s about women starting and sustaining their businesses, retirees preserving their savings without facing hidden inflation, and judges who can make decisions without clerical intervention. The value of the Iranian rial has plummeted more than 99% against the dollar since the revolution, making it nearly worthless.
These aren’t radical aspirations; they’re fundamental requirements that people in developed nations often take for granted.
There’s a valid concern that past revolutionary promises might lead to even worse outcomes. The 1979 revolution drew diverse groups united against the Shah, yet they held differing visions for the future. Many believed in a pluralistic democracy, only to see Khomeini quickly eliminate his former allies. Those who instigated the revolution faced imprisonment or worse at the hands of the new regime.
This history is important to remember.
The Revolutionary Guards didn’t create the systems of control; they refined and entrenched them. Whoever emerges in power when things settle will find these methods waiting. An organization designed for management doesn’t simply disband.
It raises a crucial question: will the regime collapse? More importantly, will its mechanisms of control and oppression vanish alongside it?
When the dust eventually settles, foreign ministers may proclaim victory, but that narrative is secondary. The critical measure is whether Iranian entrepreneurs can build businesses, retain ownership, and rely on fair legal systems. Will the engineers behind the wheel find meaningful jobs that align with their skills?
That objective is remarkably simple. Almost embarrassingly so. Yet, Iran has struggled with this challenge for nearly 50 years.
