A top strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. has predicted that President Biden will not run for re-election in a tumultuous year that has seen rolling blackouts in parts of the country, the rollout of new coronavirus vaccines and boycotts of self-driving cars. .
Over the weekend, Michael Chamberrest, head of markets and investment strategy for the Wall Street bank's wealth management division, made a shocking prediction on his list of 2024's “10 Surprises.''
The top prediction from the upstart Nostradamus was that Biden, 81, would drop out of the race “sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election, citing health concerns.”
“Super Tuesday” refers to the March 5 presidential primaries and caucuses held in more than a dozen states, including California, Texas, Massachusetts, Vermont and North Carolina.
The winner of the “Super Tuesday” contest is considered the frontrunner to ultimately win the party's presidential nomination.
Mr. Chamberrest announced his prediction as follows: Newsletter It was a tribute to former JPMorgan market strategist Byron Wien, who made 10 predictions every year for nearly 40 years until his death last year at the age of 90.
Cembalest's list includes that Americans will reject self-driving electric cars after several accidents rocked San Francisco, and that natural gas shortages have caused power outages in New York, Texas, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Tennessee. It also contained a warning that this would occur.
He predicts that new inhaled COVID-19 vaccines currently in development will become available this year and will significantly reduce virus infections, that the U.S. dollar will remain stable and that Russia's invasion of Ukraine will drag on this year without a ceasefire. did.
He also thinks U.S. regional bank stocks will perform well despite the volatility in the lending sector over the past year.
His prediction that Biden would resign was based in part on the president's low approval ratings despite “about 10% job creation since taking office.”
The strategist said Biden's high job creation numbers were “a byproduct of his presidency coinciding with the rollout of coronavirus vaccines and the reopening of the U.S. economy.”
Cembalest had no predictions about who would replace Biden as the Democratic nominee.
The newspaper has contacted the White House for comment.
Vice President Kamala Harris is unpopular with the public, with more than half (55.5%) disapproving of her job performance. According to data and statistics news site FiveThirtyEight.
The only other Democrats to announce their candidacy are Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) and self-help author Marianne Williamson.
The two leading candidates are scheduled to debate in New Hampshire on Monday. Mr. Biden will not participate.
Another Democrat, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., plans to run as an independent candidate.
Despite concerns about Mr. Biden's age and mental acuity, the incumbent remains the overwhelming favorite to regain the party's nomination, with polls showing three in four Democrats favoring Mr. Williamson and Mr. Phillips. has also been shown to support Biden. According to FiveThirtyEight.
Former President Donald Trump remains the overwhelming front-runner in the race against Republican candidates Nikki Haley, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and biotech mogul Vivek Ramaswamy.
If the presidential election were held today, Mr. Biden would lose to Mr. Trump, according to the latest polls.
