President Joe Biden’s average approval rating is well below the historical standard for incumbents to win reelection.
Average Biden approval rating from RealClearPolitic stand The president’s disapproval rate was 40.3%, and his disapproval rate was 56.3%.
His approval rating is lower than that of the previous three presidents as of March, four years into their first term. Trump 44.3, obama 47.5, Bush 50.1:
This graph shows job approval ratings for Biden, Trump, Obama, and Bush as of March 20, four years into their respective presidencies (RealClearPolitics).
Biden’s approval rating of 40% is well below the 50% threshold historically required for incumbents to win re-election.gallup report Some important reelection indicators:
- An approval rating of 50% or higher will ensure Biden’s re-election.
- Two presidents with approval ratings below 40% lose reelection
- Support ratings do not change much from June to Election Day.
This graph shows the presidential approval rating for incumbents seeking re-election (Gallup).
Polling trends show that the dynamics of American politics are currently in the midst of a realignment, upending the standard Democratic coalition since the 1960s. Democratic support among black, Latino, and Asian voters in particular has fallen to its lowest level in 60 years.As a result, Hispanics and black men are proportionately more likely to vote for former President Donald Trump. I haven’t seen it Active in American politics since the 1950s.
“In 2020, the richest third of voters supported Democrats for the first time, and Republicans improved their relationship with the poorest voters.” financial times John Byrne-Murdoch, columnist and chief data reporter explained “Republicans are now appealing to working-class and middle-class voters of all ethnicities.”
What about Mr. Trump? spur This realignment has forced the Republican Party to identify with working-class taxpayers rather than woke big business, writes Patrick Ruffini, co-founder of Echelon Insights.
Mr. Trump upended traditional party alignment in 2016 by making cultural appeals to white working-class voters while simultaneously repelling America’s upper-income, college-educated suburbanites. . This continued in 2020, with millions of nonwhite voters joining President Trump’s working-class coalition, while Democrats continued to count more college-educated people among their ranks.
The political realignment appears to be reflected in the 2024 opinion polls in battleground states. According to polls in each state, Trump is leading or tied with Biden in six of the eight swing states in 2024.
“They don’t feel safe with this lunatic,” President Trump recently said of Biden and redistricting in an exclusive interview with Breitbart News. “He’s a terrible president. He’s the worst president ever. … I think they want security.”
“I think there’s another 15 million people here,” Trump continued. “A lot of them came out of jails and prisons, and a lot of them came out of mental hospitals, and as I say in my speech, a lot of them came out of mental hospitals. A lot of terrorists. is coming to our country, and we will pay a heavy price for this.”
Wendell Husebo is a political reporter for Breitbart News and a former Republican war room analyst.he is the author of politics of slave morality.Follow Wendell “X” @WendellHusebø or society of truth @WendellHusebo.
