Incumbent Sen. Jon Tester is trailing his Republican opponent by eight points in a new poll, raising Republican hopes of taking control of the Senate.
Tester, D-Mont., trailed Republican former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, 41% to 49%, but the addition of third-party candidates could change the balance of power in the Senate. Latest AARP Poll.
The poll showed that when the seven-fingered farmer was pitted against Mr Sheehy head-to-head, he received 45% approval, dwarfing his 51%.
The Senate has 51 senators who consort with Democrats and 49 Republicans. West Virginia is widely expected to flip to the Republicans because Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) is not seeking reelection.
That would create a tie in the Senate and force a runoff election for the vice president, which is why Republicans are trying to take at least one more seat from the Democrats.
Montana is perhaps the most Republican state after West Virginia with a senator aligned with Democrats.
Polling for the Montana Senate race is somewhat sparse, but Sheehy has a 5.2 percentage point lead. Latest RealClearPolitics Tabulating opinion polls.
Former President Donald Trump, 78, won the Treasure State by more than 16 percentage points in the 2020 election. Tester joined the Senate in 2007. He was one of dozens of Democrats who called on the 81-year-old Biden to step down in July.
Tester narrowly defeated Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) in 2018, a year that saw the House vote for Democrats.
Rosendale has hinted at a possible bid for the Senate seat again and even briefly floated a run for office earlier this year. He quickly retreated after a few daysRosendale later gave up on defending his House seat.
With the quality of the candidate being more important in this election, Republican leaders actively fought Rosendale's Senate bid behind the scenes.
Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines of Montana, who has a strong interest in his home state, has reportedly urged President Trump to support Sheehy.
Democrats must defend 23 seats, including three held by independents, while Republicans hold 11 Senate seats going into this election.
of The Cook Political Report is currently Montana, Ohio and Michigan are neck and neck.
The AARP survey of 1,064 voters was conducted Aug. 25-29. It included a representative sample of 600 voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, and an oversample of 464 voters age 50 and older.
AARP commissioned the Republican-leaning Fabrizio Ward Research and the Democratic-leaning David Binder Research to conduct the poll.
