An update to Nate Silver's election forecasting model has increased the chances that former President Donald Trump will defeat Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
Previously, the model had given Trump a 52.4% chance of beating Harris, but its latest assessment on Wednesday dropped that chance to 41.6%. Trump now has a staggering 58.3% chance of beating Harris.
“They still haven't found second gear since 'Hot Brat Summer.'”
The model calculates that Trump would receive 274.7 electoral votes and Harris would receive only 263.3. To win the election, a candidate needs to receive a majority of the electoral votes, or more than 270 votes.
Silver explained that the model doesn't take into account partisan polls that show the two candidates received the same number of popular votes, so new polls in battleground states wouldn't have helped Harris' campaign.
“Our polling averages apply a relatively strict 'house effect' adjustment to partisan-sponsored polls, so that ties in partisan polls are interpreted as losses, and polls in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are crucial for our forecasts,” Silver wrote.
He said Harris Dropped Her lead in Pennsylvania shrunk from 1.8% to just 1%.
“In addition to Pennsylvania, Michigan is also problematic for Harris. National polls and polls in other battleground states show that [are] “It's mostly good for Harris, but the erosion of PA/MI is a big blow to the model,” he said. explanation.
He continued: say Part of Harris' weakness, they say, is that she has hired many Biden supporters to her campaign.
“There was a lot of enthusiasm for Harris after Biden dropped out, but that may have happened anyway. The convention speech was good, but it's a shame they skipped Shapiro.” [is] Things are starting to get bad and we're still not finding second gear after the Hot Brat Summer.” He added:
Silver also offered advice on how to improve Harris' chances of winning.
“If I were a wealthy Democratic donor and I wanted to maximize Kamala's chances of winning, I would offer $10 million to pull Biden's former top staffers from the campaign and replace them with younger, better people. I'd give them good jobs, like consulting on the Luxembourg congressional elections,” he said. Tweeted.
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