Vice President Kamala Harris has been unable to regain former President Donald Trump's hold on black, Latino and younger voters. The Wall Street Journal The results of the analysis were released on Tuesday.
The analysis is important because Democrats had hoped that President Joe Biden's decision to step aside for Harris would restore key voting bloc support for the party's nominee.
Black, Latino and young voters are historically important voting bloc for Democrats and key demographics in battleground states that can determine the outcome of a presidential election. Biden's Electoral College victory hinged on winning just 44,000 votes in three states.
Harris is well behind Biden in 2020 polls, while Trump's approval rating is roughly holding up. journal Analysis based on percentage points:
- Young Voters (under 30): Harris trails Biden by 12 points in 2020
- Black Voters: Harris is 10 points behind Biden in 2020
- Latino Voters: Harris trails Biden by six points in 2020
- Male Voters: Harris trails Biden by four points in 2020
- Women Voters: Harris trails Biden by two points in 2020
of journal They say Trump's staying power is due to support from men.
One reason Harris was unable to close the gap between these voter groups is Most men find Trump more attractive The winning percentage is higher now than it was four years ago. [b]There is a shortage of men Journal In the two most recent polls, Trump's approval rating has risen sharply from the 12% he received in 2020. And among Hispanic men, Trump is roughly equal with Harris, 47% to Harris' 48%. Analysts cite a range of reasons for the shift, including the relative importance men and women place on abortion rights, as well as differences in views on economic and social issues. Trump's aggressive personality.
Among voters of all races, Harris is slightly behind Biden's 2020 national support among men more than women.
If Harris can't match the party's 2020 record with these groups, where will she make up the vote? Many analysts say she could look to white voters, especially women, who will respond to her promise to restore abortion access. If they're right, the first [b]Without a female president, a coalition that relies more heavily on white voters than minority groups than the white man elected just before her is likely to win.
“That's the direction the trend is going,” said Republican pollster Greg Strimple. journal“I think that's what's happening.”
of journal base The company's analysis is based on an Associated Press VoteCast of 2,500 registered voters conducted July 23-25 and Aug. 24-28. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Wendell Fsebo is a political reporter for Breitbart News and a former war room analyst for the Republican National Committee. He is the author of: The Politics of Slave MoralityFollow Wendell “X” @WendellHusebø or The truth of society @WendellHusebo.
