Is that the case for Kamalamentum?
That’s the question raised in a new presidential poll. University of Massachusetts Amherst and YouGov.
When pollsters last surveyed in January, former President Donald Trump was leading President Biden 43% to 39% when “prone supporters” were taken into account.
Robert Kennedy Jr. received 9% support in that survey.
But a new poll conducted between July 29 and August 1 found Trump trailing his would-be successor, Vice President Kamala Harris, 46% to 43%, with Kennedy down to 6%.
Asked to choose between their top two candidates, Kennedy supporters were more likely to say they would vote for Trump than for Harris, 29% to 26%, and 45% said they would not vote at all.
That’s a narrowing of the gap since a January poll, when RFK supporters were asked the same question about Trump and Biden: Trump received the support of 33% of RFK supporters, compared with just 23% for Biden.
But the D+4 poll, which surveyed 42% Democrats, 38% Republicans and 20% independents, found that the number of RFK supporters leaning toward Trump is not enough to offset Democratic gains elsewhere.
The data suggests Harris’ choice of running mate could give her a boost. The announcement, expected on Tuesday, would kick off her campaign’s tour of battleground states.
About half of respondents said they thought the president should be a man, and about the same number said he should be someone from a battleground state.
This makes the results reasonable for the two Democratic candidates who announced their candidacy as of Monday night and were considered the front-runners: Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly.
Among Democrats, 14% support Kerry and 12% support Shapiro, while Kerry has a slight lead among independents with 7%, with Shapiro and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg close behind at 5%.
The poll highlights the former president’s polarizing stance, with 75% of Trump supporters saying his accomplishments are the reason they support him, and 48% saying his ability to “save America” is a key factor in their support.
Conversely, 66% of those who did not vote for Trump say he is a “threat to America,” and 48% of those also blame Trump for the “January 6th riot.”
Meanwhile, Harris supporters view her campaign in more aspirational terms, with 66% believing the 59-year-old former prosecutor and senator represents a “new generation” of Democrats. Thirty-seven percent of Harris supporters believe she will enhance America’s “global standing,” and 35% believe she will continue the policies of the Biden administration.
Ironically, the threat to America’s global standing and the continuation of Biden’s policies is the main reason many voters are looking to other candidates, with 77% of those who dislike Harris worried she would perpetuate Bidenism and 49% convinced she would damage international perceptions of the United States.
When asked about the qualities of a candidate, Harris was rated more favorably than Trump in being perceived as compassionate, energetic, likeable, intelligent, hardworking and a “moderate,” suggesting that Trump’s characterization of Harris as a “dangerous liberal” is not being well-received.
Trump is seen as more experienced, stronger and more patriotic.
The poll also showed that the prospect of Ms Harris winning evoked more positive emotions than Mr Biden’s reelection, with twice as many people saying they would feel “proud” if the vice president was elected in November rather than the incumbent.
A quarter of independents expect to vote in the Harris-Trump race, but that’s smaller than the 66% of Democrats and 37% of Republicans who say the same.
