Election data expert Nate Silver said over the weekend that Vice President Kamala Harris missed a “huge opportunity” in choosing her running mate, a move that polling suggests could cost Democrats in key battleground states.
Founder of FiveThirtyEight He wrote in the Sunday newsletter, “Silver Bulletin.” The 59-year-old said she “missed a great opportunity to become a center.” [Minnesota Gov.] Not Tim Waltz [Pennsylvania Gov.] “Josh Shapiro”
Silver was responding to a New York Times/Siena College poll that showed nearly half of voters (47%) see Harris as too liberal, mirroring her unsuccessful 2020 presidential campaign despite advocating several far-left positions.
“[Harris] “She's a much more talented politician than she was in 2019, and it's unfortunate that her campaign that year was run by people who thought Elizabeth Warren was on the right,” Silver wrote. “I think Waltz was a decent enough choice on her own merits, but when given the opportunity to concretely chart the direction her presidency would take, [Harris] I'm back in 2019 mode.”
Shapiro's potential selection had drawn backlash from far-left Democrats because of his support for Israel. Many critics said the criticism of Shapiro, who is Jewish, was rooted in anti-Semitism, and Silver wrote Sunday that “the fact that so few progressives opposed Shapiro was an argument in his favor.”
Adding to the attacks from the left, Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA)'s team Reportedly He criticized Shapiro as a political opportunist and advised the Harris campaign not to appoint him.
Ahead of Harris' announcement, Philadelphia Mayor Sherrell Parker released a video suggesting the governor was the vice presidential pick, appearing to anger some of Harris' supporters.
Those close to Harris say she chose Waltz as her running mate because of the personal rapport they have built.
Shapiro was seen as a possible vice presidential candidate who could shore up support for Harris in the Keystone State, where the state's 19 electoral votes are crucial in deciding the election outcome.
Silver said Sunday that the vice president was “low approval among white voters without college degrees, rural voters and older voters – the types of voters who are overrepresented in blue wall states like Pennsylvania.”
As of Tuesday, Silver's model projected former President Donald Trump, 78, to have a 65% chance of winning Pennsylvania and a 64.4% chance of winning the election, the highest ever for a Republican candidate since President Biden ended his reelection bid on July 21.
The Times/Siena poll was released two days before Harris and Trump are set to hold their first and only debate in Philadelphia, and Silver suggested the findings could serve as a warning to the Democratic candidates and their supporters.
“Debates are often judged not just by the candidates' actual performance but also by expectations, and if the race is perceived as favorable for Harris or even Trump, her performance may be viewed more favorably,” he wrote on Sunday.
“And Harris will be more likely to avoid the counterproductive risk aversion she displayed in choosing Waltz. She should campaign as if she is down by 2 points, which, if the Times poll is correct, she is.”
