New York gubernatorial race tightens as Kathy Hochul leads Bruce Blakeman in poll
As the gubernatorial candidates Kathy Hochul and Bruce Blakeman engage in debates around economic policies, a recent Siena University poll reveals that Hochul has a narrow lead. Mike Lee joins the analysis of the numbers, noting Hochul’s support at 50% and Blakeman at 41% among likely voters in New York.
Interestingly, Blakeman, who serves as the Nassau County executive, previously trailed Hochul by 10 points in August, which—while a promising improvement—is still within the poll’s margin of error. This situation is particularly noteworthy because he aims to be the first Republican in nearly 25 years to win an election for governor in the state.
“Six weeks before the election, both candidates receive some favorable news,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg explained, mentioning Hochul’s improved favorability ratings and Blakeman’s progress in closing the gap, which now stands at nine points. This is significant in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans two-to-one.
Looking back at the previous election cycle, Greenberg highlighted that Hochul had a 17-point lead over GOP nominee Lee Zeldin at this time four years ago, but Zeldin managed to narrow that gap by Election Day.
In terms of party loyalty, Blakeman appears to be connecting well with Republican voters, leading 88-8%, while Hochul’s Democratic support is slightly less robust at 81-11%. Among independent voters, Blakeman also leads 44-39%.
Commenting on the new poll results, Blakeman stated that he is gaining traction. However, the poll indicates that about two-thirds of voters believe Hochul is likely to win re-election, even among some Republicans.
Looking at endorsements, Blakeman is closely aligned with former President Donald Trump, who endorsed him earlier this year; however, that backing may not be entirely beneficial. Polling shows that many voters, including a significant number of Republicans, view Trump’s support as a negative for Blakeman’s campaign.
On the other hand, Hochul has received the support of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, whose endorsement seems favorable, with voters favoring his backing by a margin of 50%-30% for Hochul’s re-election efforts.
Hochul, who became New York’s first female governor in August 2021 after Andrew Cuomo resigned amid controversies, seems to have strengthened her position over the last year, especially as she opposes aspects of Trump’s agenda.
The Siena poll, which surveyed 1,144 likely voters and features a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 points, was conducted via telephone and text-to-web methods. However, the Hochul campaign did not provide a response regarding the poll when contacted.
