Recent polls in Peru indicate that conservative former first lady and senator Keiko Fujimori is likely to secure victory in the first round of voting for the upcoming presidential election.
Peru has experienced a turbulent political landscape, with nine presidents in the last decade. The presidential and parliamentary elections are set for April 12, marking the first election since 2021. This cycle follows a wave of impeachments, starting with the removal of former leftist president Pedro Castillo in December 2022, followed by Dina Boluarte’s impeachment and the ousting of interim president José Geri in February 2025.
Currently, José María Balcázar, a Marxist lawmaker advocating for reforms, is serving as interim president after Geri’s removal. He is expected to hand over power upon the inauguration of the next president on July 28. However, Balcázar faces several legal challenges, including a defamation trial that has been postponed to August 2026, which coincides with the end of his term.
It’s worth noting that the last president to complete a full term was leftist Ollanta Humala, who left office in 2016. Both he and his wife, Nadine Heredia, are currently serving 15-year sentences starting in April 2025 for conspiracy related to corruption.
The upcoming presidential election features a diverse array of candidates, with 35 individuals representing various political views. Due to the large number of contestants, no polls suggest that any candidate will achieve the required 50% majority in the first round. This could lead to a runoff between the two candidates with the highest vote counts, scheduled for June 7.
According to Peru’s electoral regulations, poll results can only be released up to one week before the election, meaning that this will be the last wave of polling data published prior to voting day.
Results from three prominent polling firms indicate Fujimori’s strong position, suggesting she is poised to advance to the runoff in June. The Datum International poll has her leading with 14.5%, followed by Carlos Álvarez at 10.9% and Rafael López Arriaga at 9.9%. Notably, about 16.8% of respondents have yet to decide.
Fujimori, now 50, is the daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, who governed Peru from 1990 to 2000 and played a key role in suppressing the Shining Path insurgency. After serving a lengthy prison sentence for human rights violations, he passed away from cancer in September 2024. Keiko held the position of first lady during her parents’ separation.
This election marks Fujimori’s fourth attempt at the presidency, having narrowly lost in 2011, 2016, and 2021. If she wins, Fujimori plans to govern with a focus on “order, economy, and society,” promising policies that echo her father’s economic strategies from the 1990s, alongside a strong stance against crime and corruption.
Polls from various sources have consistently shown Fujimori in the lead, although specific rankings may vary. According to the latest findings by the Peruvian Market Research Institute (CPI), she continues to maintain her frontrunner status, with some variations in the order of her competitors.
Peruvian voters will also choose national senators, representatives, and members of the Andean regional parliament, with around 27 million eligible voters set to cast their ballots. Voting is mandatory, although this obligation does not apply to individuals aged 70 and older.
