Texas Senate Polling Update
A recent poll has shown Republican Ken Paxton slightly ahead of Democrat James Talarico in the Texas Senate race, with Paxton at 47.2 percent and Talarico at 46.7 percent. This contest is expected to be the most expensive one in the upcoming 2026 midterm cycle.
According to a summary from Quantus Insights, Paxton’s narrow lead of half a point is attributed to strong support among older and rural voters, while Talarico appears to have a noticeable edge among independent voters, leading them by 52 percent to 37 percent.
The polling data also suggests that Talarico has maximized his support from Democrats in Texas, but Paxton’s steady rise in approval from Republican voters, who are the majority in the state, leaves him well-positioned to maintain his lead.
Currently, Paxton enjoys an 87 percent backing from GOP voters, a noticeable increase from his earlier low-80s support following primaries that saw significant funds spent against him during his race against outgoing Senator John Cornyn.
When breaking down voter demographics, Paxton leads notably among older voters (those 65 and older) with 56 percent versus Talarico’s 39 percent. He also holds a slight advantage among those aged 45 to 64. However, Talarico dominates the younger demographics, particularly those under 30, where he captures 62 percent compared to Paxton’s 29 percent. This demographic, while crucial, often has lower turnout rates during midterms.
In terms of perceived alignment with Texas voters, Paxton appears to hold an edge. The survey indicates that 48.6 percent feel Paxton resonates with voters, while only 45.5 percent think the same of Talarico. Moreover, nearly half of the respondents view Talarico as misaligned with Texan interests.
As the race heats up, Republican-aligned groups have backed Paxton with an unprecedented financial advantage. Reports have revealed that a Texas PAC associated with the Senate Leadership Fund spent a staggering $131 million in September alone, with additional funds expected in October.
Elon Musk has reportedly contributed significantly to Republican funding efforts, amassing a total of $276 million through various channels.
On the campaign front, Talarico’s recent absence due to flu-like symptoms has raised some eyebrows, as he had not been seen for two weeks and only recently made a public appearance at a concert with Kacey Musgraves.
Early in-person voting in Texas is set to start on Monday, October 19.
