As Americans focus on the upcoming presidential election, political operatives and Washington insiders are gearing up for what seems more certain: the restoration of the Republican Senate majority.
A majority of that money comes from former President Donald Trump's aid.
Its scale also depends on the fate of President Trump.
Democrats have known for two years that their 51-49 vote would hold. in the senate It will be very difficult to maintain it in 2024.
West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio are the last red states with longtime Democratic senators, and these three seats coincidentally come in the same year that President Trump would drive Republican turnout to staggering levels. Everything is mixed.
West Virginia is the easiest state. retirement Senator Joe Manchin.
recent report Republican Gov. Jim Justice has a larger lead. 30 points About the challengers for Manchin's vacated seat.
Democratic Party Senator Jon Tester After successfully outmaneuvering his opponents for multiple cycles, the Montana native appears set to take on Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy.
RealClearPolitics voting initially ends average Sheehy was up 7 points.
Democratic Party senator sherrod brown Ohio, considered by many to be the most difficult red Democratic state to defeat, appears to be unable to withstand the weight of Ohio's red tilt with Trump as the front-runner.
On Thursday, Axios reported that: another Opinion polls show Moreno gaining 1 to 3 points. On the other hand, R.C.P. average Although Brown still has a 0.6 point lead, these latest polls point to an ominous trend for the longtime senator less than three weeks after the election.
These three picks could give Republicans a majority of 52 seats, unless the Republican incumbent is unlikely to lose.
There are other Senate races underway, but three Democratic strongholds have emerged as unexpected battlegrounds, and it just so happens that these three parties hold the key to the presidency. .
Trump's strength with blue-collar union voters makes Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin a real opportunity for Senate Republicans.
Democrats entered this cycle with confidence. Senator Tammy Baldwin Wisconsin and senator bob casey Their experience and fundraising increased their support in Pennsylvania, but their numbers dwindled as Trump's numbers grew.
Baldwin is currently fight While talking about his political life with businessman Eric Hovde; dave mccormick Following Casey.
Michigan Senate vacancy race Rep. Elissa Slotkin against the original Congressman Mike Rogers It's on par with Rogers' own internals. vote I only let him drop one point.
Trump's political strength is highlighted by Baldwin, Casey, and Slotkin's use of him in their own political ads.
Casey not only plays cards on TV; rarely He was spotted with Vice President Kamala Harris while campaigning in Pennsylvania.
This is not only a clear turnaround for a longtime critic of Trump, but also a particularly ominous sign for Senate Democrats and the Harris campaign.
These decisions about campaigns are not made in a vacuum. Casey needs Trump supporters to win, and hanging out with Harris won't do that.
Slotkin has even publicly fired warning shots at the Harris campaign.underwater”
Trump's team is the best ever, and he exudes quiet confidence.
Meanwhile, Harris is scrambling and sitting. For interview She avoided campaigning for the first 60 days of the campaign in an attempt to regain support. I lost African Americans, Latinos, blue color communities in these states.
Importantly, these states almost always vote the same in presidential elections. trump beat them in 2016then Biden in 2020.
President Trump's proven ability to draw out less inclined voters is also troubling for Democrats.
A change of just 1-2 percent can mean a win.
His supporters overwhelmingly helped lead the Republican Party to victory.
If Trump can achieve a trifecta, he will likely return to the White House and bring three new Republican senators to Washington in 2025.
The difference between a 52-seat majority and a 55-seat majority cannot be overstated.
Senate Republicans will have a level of power they haven't had in years, and Mr. Trump will return to Washington with an even bigger mission.
Lance Trover is a strategic communications and campaign strategist. He recently served as a spokesman for North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum's presidential campaign.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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