Biologist Paul Ehrlich, 91, and other population reduction advocates have long expressed concern that there are too many humans living on Earth. Their alarming claims turned out to be both wrong and with grave consequences, the kind of disastrous policies adopted by the communist Chinese regime that slaughtered hundreds of millions of infants as a result of its one-child policy. caused.
It turns out that the real problem facing this species is not a population boom, but rather a world-changing population crisis.
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new peer-reviewed research A recent paper published in The Lancet found that fertility rates have been declining in every country and region since 1950, and that “human civilization is rapidly converging on the reality of persistently low fertility.” .
Fertility rate refers to the average number of children a woman bears during her lifetime. In 1950, the world birth rate was 4.84. In 2021, it was 2.23. By the end of this century, it is expected to drop to 1.59 globally.
A birth rate of 2.1 is required for the population to remain stable and replenish without the need for an influx of foreigners.
The US birth rate last year was
1.784.In contrast, in 1960 the U.S. birth rate was 3.7. According to the study, the projected birth rate for the United States in 2100 is 1.45.
“Only six of the 204 countries and territories (Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad and Tajikistan) are projected to exceed the replacement fertility level by 2100, meaning that natural increase remains positive. in only 26 countries (i.e., births would exceed deaths),” the researchers wrote.
The researchers drew these conclusions based on the latest assessments of key fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021 and projected fertility indicators to 2100 produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. 2021 Global Burden of Disease, Injury and Risk Factors Surveywas executed at the University of Washington School of Medicine.
This demographic impact outlined in the study is already shaking countries like China and China. Japan. Lest a major reversal occur, its effects will continue to grow around the world in the coming decades.
fall out
According to the study, the world will become increasingly divided in terms of age groups. West and Asia will become less populated and increasingly grey, while parts of sub-Saharan Africa will remain relatively youthful.
Because countries with low birth rates have a large ratio of older people to young people, “a rising dependency ratio of older people to working-age people and a shrinking labor force are likely to pose significant economic challenges.” The study reports.
The researchers said that without new funding sources and “unforeseen innovations”, national health insurance and social security programs, as well as health infrastructure, would be overwhelmed.
In addition to putting a strain on the medical and welfare systems, an increase in childless societies is likely to take an economic hit as well.
The study states, “If productivity per working-age adult does not rise in line with the decline in the working-age population, gross domestic product (GDP) growth will slow.” “Countries with low birth rates will increasingly need to rely on immigration to sustain economic growth.”
The study suggests that as post-industrial countries seek to address labor shortages, their reliance on immigrants from low-income countries who are still bothered to have children will increase. However, this dependence can have a negative impact on immigrants’ home countries, causing them to lose skilled workers and talent seeking better wages abroad.
Despite the ongoing collapse of civilization, the researchers behind the study, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, believe climate change concerns and other depopulation advocates see a sign of hope. Emphasizing what may be considered, he states: This is also an opportunity to drive a century of environmental progress around the world. ”
An increasingly aging, childless world “could reduce some of the strain on global food systems, fragile environments, and other finite resources, and also reduce carbon emissions,” the researchers said. is writing.
Remedy
The study suggested that antenatal policies such as child-related cash transfers, tax breaks, childcare subsidies, extended parental leave, and other family supports are effective.
roll out Viktor Orbán’s Hungary and now considered In South Korea, it may help halt or slow down the decline in birth rates. However, “there is little data to show that such policies have led to a strong and sustained recovery in fertility.”
atlantic
I got it. Prenatal policies have proven successful in certain cases. For example, in the Czech Republic, birth rates bottomed out in the 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In the mid-2000s, the government began giving parents $10,000 per child, equivalent to what many Americans earn in a year after taxes.
Tomáš Sobotka, a researcher at Austria’s Vienna Demographic Research Institute, said the Czech Republic’s prenatal policies were successful because the number of births increased over time, and more families were having second and third children. He told The Atlantic.
“Even under optimistic assumptions about the impact of prenatal policies based on current data, the global [total fertility rate] “Until 2100, population replacement levels will remain low and well below replacement levels,” the study said. “Nonetheless, our prenatal scenario projections suggest that some countries may be prevented from falling below very low levels (<1·6 TFR), or in the future. lowest or lowest (<1·3 TFR) fertility. ”
The researchers did not mention the possibility of cultural or spiritual remedies, but recommended against restricting access to life-threatening abortions.
Over 70 million babies a year World wide.
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