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Conventional wisdom has it that Donald Trump’s choice of J.D. Vance as his vice president was such a blunder that it made the former president doubt his own instincts, but the race looks a little different and Republicans may be building a new financial base.
In speaking with voters in nine states in the weeks since the announcement, some surprising things emerged: Most Republicans and independents I spoke to did not list Vance as their first choice.
This is despite the fact that Vance was hugely popular and the first choice among ardent Trump supporters online, but right-wing voters seem to be very supportive of his selection even if Vance was not their favorite.
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I heard the words “solid” and “man of integrity” from two men I spoke with at the Carroll County Fair in Maryland this past weekend. Vance has a modest personality and qualities that are respected, especially among men.
At a Trump rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, this week, Rich told me he would have preferred North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum to nominate him. Frankly, that’s more than I expected. “But I like Vance, and I think he’ll be ready to go from day one,” he told me.
Outside for a cigarette, I meet a group of guys, including Joe, who says he likes both Vance and Trump for similar reasons. “My dad always said,” he says, slowing down a little, “that to run a country properly, you need a businessman or a farmer.” So Vance’s experience in venture capital appeals to him.
And there’s another way Vance could shift traditional Republican boundaries: This week, he returned to Silicon Valley to host a fundraiser for big tech companies.
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This is just one day later Former PayPal executive David MarcusMarcus, no relation to me, wrote an eloquent post on X saying he had “crossed the Rubicon” and was now endorsing Donald Trump. Marcus has raised plenty of money for the Democratic Party over the past few years.
While this may not yet be a big change, there has been significant political movement within big tech companies, with people like Elon Musk and David Sachs becoming significantly more Republican-friendly amid concerns about censorship and regulation.
Vance is not solely responsible for the change, but of the VP candidates, the former venture capitalist had the closest ties to big tech.
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Only time will tell what significant impact President Trump’s selection of Vance will have on the final outcome in November, but from my perspective on the ground and looking at the money flow, it seems too early to believe the reports that this is a disastrous mistake.
There was widespread speculation among Republican convention attendees in Milwaukee that Vance’s nomination, just days after the assassination attempt, was a huge show of confidence in a move some saw as a major tilt in Trump’s favor.
But Biden’s withdrawal less than a week after Vance was selected changed everything about the 2024 race, narrowing the gap in some polls and leading to the general perception that it’s still a very close race.
Some of the most memorable conversations I’ve had with voters about Vance have been in his hometown of Toledo and Youngstown, Ohio, where, frankly, even his constituents knew more about his book, “Hillbilly Elegy,” and the hit movie that followed, than they did about his policies.
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The left is trying to portray Vance as a “nut” because of his past comments about cat ladies and the like, but that can go both ways. He still has time to define himself, even to the voters who already sent him to Washington.
Voters I met with say J.D. Vance has a shot: a chance to win voters’ support and establish himself as the heir to Trumpism. But with months to go, and Harris’ own running mate yet to be chosen, it’s too early to make any declarations or predictions about what Vance will do, including some calling his selection a disaster.
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