Gonzalez Faces Tough Road to Re-Election Amid Allegations

Rep. Tony Gonzalez from Texas is in a challenging position as he seeks a fourth term in Congress, particularly following the surfacing of details regarding his alleged affair with a former congressional aide who tragically self-immolated last year.

A political intelligence survey conducted shortly after news outlets, including the Post, reported on the affair reveals Gonzalez’s struggle. It shows him garnering only 21% of likely voters in the Republican primary slated for March 3 in Texas’ 23rd Congressional District.

Brandon Herrera, a YouTuber who’s also passionate about firearms, leads the pack with a notable 45% approval rating, as per a poll funded by his campaign.

Interestingly, over a quarter of potential voters—26%—remain undecided. Meanwhile, former congressman Francisco “Cuico” Canseco and construction executive Keith Barton are trailing behind with only 4% support each.

A slightly more favorable view seems to surround Gonzalez, as 54% of likely primary voters expressed a “favorable” opinion of him. However, a mere 24% actually termed their opinion as “favorable,” with 22% remaining uncertain.

In contrast, Herrera is viewed positively by 52% of likely voters, while 20% rated him unfavorably, and 29% had no opinion at all.

If the primary were conducted today, it’s clear that 45% of likely Republican voters would back Herrera, with Gonzalez at 21% and Canseco and Barton each at 4%.

Recently, Aviles, the widow of the late aide, made public communications in which Gonzalez solicited “sexy photos” from her and inquired about her favorite sexual positions.

Gonzalez, in response to the growing controversy, accused both Herrera and Adrian Aviles, the widow, of blackmail after a text exchange revealed the aide admitting to an affair with a colleague.

Regina Santos-Avilés, aged 35, had self-immolated at her home in Uvalde, Texas, on September 13, 2025, and succumbed to her injuries the following day.

This scenario surfaced about sixteen months ago when Adrian Aviles uncovered suggestive texts on his wife’s phone from a deputy.

The latest poll indicates that 61% of Republicans in the 23rd District stated that these revelations would likely make them “somewhat less likely” or “much less likely” to support Gonzalez, while only 32% claimed it wouldn’t impact their decision.

In reacting to the evolving situation, Gonzalez noted, “In my six years in Congress, there has never been a formal complaint against my office. Now, just days before the election, organized political attacks are rampant.” He expressed skepticism over these tactics in a post made on social media.

Despite the turmoil, Gonzalez emphasized that early voting has generated significant enthusiasm among his supporters, suggesting a degree of optimism amid the chaos.

Moreover, Aviles and his lawyer had sought a substantial settlement from Gonzalez’s office, claiming sexual harassment and workplace retaliation under the Congressional Accountability Act.

Adrian Aviles expressed disappointment, stating, “He lives his life as if nothing happened,” criticizing the lack of outreach from Gonzalez’s office post-tragedy.

He further clarified that Regina was not dealing with pregnancy issues and had been a stable individual before these events unfolded.

Gonzalez has consistently denied the allegations related to the affair since the news broke.

Furthermore, last week, the congressman accused Aviles and his attorney of attempting to coerce him.

In a surprising turn, Aviles urged former President Trump to withdraw his endorsement of Gonzalez, despite initially claiming that the situation wasn’t motivated by political concerns.

Reflecting on his personal struggles, Aviles remarked, “I was trying to stay silent… I can’t let him lie about my wife again.” He noted that he had reasons to remain quiet, particularly considering his young son.

The Political Intelligence survey involved 543 likely voters in the upcoming Republican primary for the 23rd Congressional District, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.