Mason Miller’s Impressive Season with San Diego Padres
As Cone’s “Blind” filled the air at Petco Park during the top of the 9th, the opposing team knew their fate was sealed with Mason Miller on the mound. The lights flickered in the stadium, setting the stage just before he silenced yet another batter.
Miller, a 27-year-old from Pittsburgh, has delivered a standout performance this season. Over 11 games, he has pitched 11.1 innings, boasting a record of 1 win, no losses, an incredible ERA of 0.00, and has achieved 8 saves. To kick off the season, he allowed only four baserunners, consisting of two singles and two walks.
What’s even more astonishing about Miller’s unblemished start? He has faced 38 batters and struck out 27 of them, giving him a strikeout rate of 71.1%. This translates to an average of 21.4 strikeouts for every nine innings pitched.
But the question arises: does he stand a realistic chance of clinching the Cy Young Award? Well, the odds seem slim.
Currently, Miller ranks fifth in the odds for the National League Cy Young Award, as outlined by DraftKings:
- Paul Skeens of the Pittsburgh Pirates – +260
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Los Angeles Dodgers – +380
- Christopher Sanchez of the Philadelphia Phillies – +550
- Chris Sale of the Atlanta Braves – +950
- Mason Miller – +1500
To even entertain a credible shot at the Cy Young, Miller may need to achieve unprecedented feats.
A Historical Perspective
To put things in context, let’s reflect on the past nine relief pitchers who’ve bagged the Cy Young Award:
- Mike Marshall, Dodgers, 1974
- Sparky Lyle, New York Yankees, 1977
- Bruce Sutter, Chicago Cubs, 1979
- Rollie Fingers, Milwaukee Brewers, 1981
- Willie Hernandez, Detroit Tigers, 1984
- Steve Bedrosian, Philadelphia Phillies, 1987
- Mark Davis, Padres, 1989
- Dennis Eckersley, then Oakland Athletics, 1992
- Eric Gagne, Dodgers, 2003
Now, it’s clear that comparing Miller to some of these pitchers might not be fair—pitchers like Marshall (208 innings) or Lyle (137 innings) had much heavier workloads. Miller, for his part, is projected to pitch around 81 innings this season, which isn’t even close to those historical counts.
Interestingly, he’s on track to pitch as many innings as a handful of those past closers. For example, Fingers logged 78 innings, while Eckersley pitched 80. However, Miller would need to surpass Bedrosian’s 2.83 ERA to solidify any chances of winning. Last season’s Cy Young winner, Paul Skeens, pitched 187.2 innings with a 1.97 ERA and had a 10-10 record.
Skeens, the current favorite, is off to a rough start with a 3.27 ERA in 22 innings across five games. Yet, he’s rebounded nicely since that initial outing against the Mets where he allowed five runs in just two outs.
When considering relief pitchers like Davis, Eckersley, and Gagne—Davis had a 1.85 ERA over 92.2 innings; Eckersley boasted a 1.91 ERA over 80 innings; while Gagne led with a stunning 1.20 ERA in 82.1 innings. All those seasons were remarkable, but it’s essential to realize that the baseball landscape has dramatically shifted.
Changes in the Game
Today, the innings pitched by starting pitchers have decreased significantly, and the presence of elite relief pitchers has surged. In 2003, numerous pitchers threw over 200 innings, but only a handful did so last season. Hence, pitchers who can log 185 to 200 innings, particularly with lower ERAs, are in demand today more than ever.
Moreover, with relievers now frequently hitting 100 mph, Miller’s accomplishments, though impressive, feel less unique than they would have two decades ago. Consider St. Louis Cardinals’ closer Riley O’Brien—he’s also boasting a 0.00 ERA in 12 games thus far.
It appears that voters are not as fixated on a singular dominant relief season as they once were, especially when looking at the voting trends over the last several years.
Since 2016, just two relief pitchers have landed in the top four for the Cy Young—Zach Britton with the Orioles and Emmanuel Clase from the Guardians. Britton, even with a remarkable season, was overshadowed by starter Rick Porcello, who pitched over 220 innings with a solid win-loss record.
So, while Miller certainly has talent, he might find it tough to gain the recognition he deserves under present circumstances. To capture voters’ attention for the Cy Young, he may need both astronomical strikeout numbers and a leading position in saves.
This doesn’t negate the potential for relief pitchers to shine, but the historical weight isn’t as impactful as it used to be.
In summary, while Mason Miller could potentially be on the path toward a sensational season, the odds of him actually snagging the Cy Young Award seem quite stacked against him.
