Hedge fund manager and investor Ray Dalio thinks a new American civil war is possible, putting the probability at 35-40%. But it probably won’t turn into a gunfight, he says. Instead, it will manifest as geographic relocation: “People will move to states that are in line with their preferences, and they won’t submit to the decisions of a federal government that has the opposite political leanings.” Dalio said: Financial Times.
However true Dalio’s prediction may be, when it comes to political beliefs, Americans seem to be letting U-Haul do the talking. It’s been a truism for decades: Americans are fleeing states that cling to progressivism and migrating to states that are more protective of economic and other liberties. Direct Transfer While a blue-to-red shift is hard to prove, it’s undeniable that blue states are shrinking and red states are booming.
While conservatives flee Chicago and New York for economic freedom and safer cities like Nashville and Cape Coral, Florida, liberals head south to escape the snow.
Latest Census Bureau Statistics Emphasize the main pointsFive of the top 10 fastest-growing states, percentage-wise, from July 2022 to July 2023 were solidly conservative states: South Carolina, Florida, Texas, Idaho and North Carolina. Add to that the numbers Tennessee and Utah, also in the top 10, and you can definitely see a red tint to how Americans are moving.
As for where these internal refugees are coming from, that’s simple too: They’re coming from New York, New Jersey, and Illinois.
But it’s the big, beautiful state on the left coast, California, that’s lost the most population. Big companies fleeing the coast have been making headlines, with Tesla’s move to Texas just the latest ripple in the exodus. The companies fleeing the Golden State include 85 companies employing more than 100 people, including Oracle, Hewlett-Packard, and Charles Schwab. left Between 2020 and April 2023, 53 headquarters will be located across the state. left I’ve been in the Bay Area since 2020.
Celebrities regularly move away from the sun and sand, and Kirk Cameron is one of the latest celebrities to feel more comfortable in the spotlight, joining a long list of A-list stars (and B- and C-list stars) who have fled Hollywood for healthier climes. Texas and Tennessee — Mark Wahlberg, Ryan Gosling, Eva Mendes, Sylvester Stallone, Katherine Heigl, Glen Powell, Emma Stone, etc.
Even the intelligentsia is drawn to the freedoms offered elsewhere. The New York Times recently wrote: Long Works Claremont scholars are fleeing Southern California for more ideologically friendly territories, and some Claremont intellectuals “see themselves as participants and advocates of a ‘Great Order,’ a social reorganization in which conservatives and liberals naturally divide into homogeneous communities and neighborhoods,” the Times reported.
The reasons people are fleeing blue havens like California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey are well known and can be categorized as economic: states with growing populations have lower taxes and in some cases no state taxes at all, lower housing costs due to fewer restrictions on home construction, fewer regulations in general, and more jobs. States where people are leaving suffer from high energy costs, rococo regulations, and a hostile business environment.
But other factors are at play. The pandemic has tested the American spirit, and states cowed by its presence have imposed strict business restrictions, mandated extended mask-wearing, chained school doors shut far beyond the call of prudence, and suffered devastating migrant exodus. Lockdown impresarios in California and New York have lost Between April 2020 and July 2023, the state added 1.2 million and 900,000 residents, respectively, while Florida and Texas, which escaped the restrictions, added 819,000 and 656,000 in the same period. Smaller states followed suit, with South Carolina adding 248,000 and Idaho adding 104,000 in the same period, while Louisiana lost 111,000 and Maryland lost 100,000.
Indeed, some freedom-hating blue states have yet to return to pre-COVID employment levels. Four years laterThe list also features the usual suspects: New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maryland, Hawaii and the District of Columbia.
It is common in these destination cities to warn newcomers not to bring their political ideas with them.
“US states that implemented stricter lockdowns and non-pharmaceutical measures have seen a slower recovery,” said Peter Earl, an economist at the American Institute for Economic Research. Said The Daily Caller reported, “In these states, officials and their advocates will say they are recovering from the pandemic, but that’s not true. They’re actually recovering from policies they enacted to prevent the spread of the virus.”
The state Breaking the Red and Blue Similar movements are seen in the field of education. In Florida, students must submit ACT or SAT scores to enter public universities. Meanwhile, California is “test-free” and tests are not required for freshman admission, as they are considered biased and favor the rich. Both Florida and Texas have attacked critical race theory in their school curricula. Regarding diversity, equity, and inclusion, the state legislature said there are currently 29 anti-DEI bills pending in 17 Republican-controlled states. The Chronicle of Higher EducationNeedless to say, CRT and DEI are taking root in education in Democratic-leaning states.
Perhaps the purest red-blue dividing line is over transgender policy. 25 out of 50 Some states prohibit biological males from participating in women’s sports. map These states roughly mirror the presidential electoral map, with states that support women only in sports corresponding to states that reliably vote Republican.
The red-blue divide is similarly stark when it comes to “gender-affirming care” for minors, with at least 25 red states banning it and 11 blue states allowing sanctuary-style care. Gender-affirming legislationThe legality of these red state actions will likely be determined next fall. supreme court In June, the state agreed to hear an appeal by the Biden administration seeking to block Republican-leaning states’ efforts to ban such care.
But the big unknown in the Big Sort is the weather. Obviously, no one is leaving California for better weather elsewhere, but many residents of Chicago, New York and Philadelphia are seeking their own version of “climate change.”
And while some conservatives flee Chicago and New York for economic freedom and safer cities like Nashville, Tennessee, and Cape Coral, Florida, others head south to escape the snow. Where do the left go? Many end up in Democratic cities in Republican states. Texas, for example, is not painted a solid red template, but a blue dot on a red background. big Blue dots (Houston, Austin, the Metroplex): It’s common in these destination cities to warn newcomers not to bring their political ideas with them.
How many people join, and how many of them ultimately arrive adhering to Democratic Party beliefs, will determine how genuine the Big Thought will be and how successful it will be.
